Sunday, 23 Mar, 2025
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PM Modi’s Feb 13 visit to the White House is set to feature immigration discussions, coinciding with recent deportations. The trip highlights deepening bilateral engagement against the backdrop of shifting US immigration policies and India’s efforts to safeguard its diaspora’s interests.
The recent deportation of more than 100 illegal Indian immigrants from the US on a military aircraft has reignited discussions on immigration policies and enforcement. While the Barack Obama era saw a surge in unauthorised Indian immigrants, Donald Trump’s hardline stance curbed the flow. Under Joe Biden, numbers have stayed lower, reflecting a mix of stricter enforcement and selective legal pathways.
For New Delhi, these deportations highlight a growing challenge—managing outbound migration amid tightening US policies. With Trump leading polls for a 2024 comeback, deportations could accelerate. Experts say a shrinking window for unauthorised migration, pushing skilled workers to seek alternative destinations such as Canada and Australia.
The Trump administration’s decision to use military aircraft for deporting undocumented migrants highlights its stringent immigration policies. However, this approach comes with significant financial implications. Deporting individuals to India via a military plane is estimated to cost more than $1 million—nearly three times more than using a civilian aircraft.
More significantly, documents from the U.S. Air Mobility Command reveal that operating a C-17 Globemaster III costs $28,562 per flight hour, whereas a charter flight used by ICE costs only $8,577 per hour—making military deportation flights significantly more expensive.
The deportation comes just ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s February 13 White House visit, where immigration is expected to be a key agenda item. In a past conversation after taking office, Trump urged Modi to address illegal immigration, expressing confidence that the Indian leader would “do the right thing.”
New Delhi’s ranking among countries with the highest unauthorized immigrant populations rose from 6th in 2009 to 4th by 2016, driven by economic migration and overstays, before falling to 9th in 2022 as stricter policies and increased deportations took effect.
US authorities deported more than 1,100 Indian nationals between October 2023 and September 2024, marking a steady rise in removals, according to American officials.
The latest large-scale deportation took place on October 22, when nearly 100 Indian nationals were repatriated on a charter flight. This reflects tightening immigration enforcement amid shifting US policies on unauthorised migration.
US deportation policies have shifted with political cycles, directly impacting Indian migrants. While the Obama administration recorded higher overall removals, its primary focus remained on Latin American migrants. However, during Trump’s first term, deportations of Indian nationals surged, exceeding those of Chinese migrants. While deportations of Indian nationals surged under Trump’s first term, the overall number of removals by US authorities was notably higher during Obama’s second term.
For India, the implications are clear—unauthorised migration to the US is becoming increasingly dangerous. Analysts say the second-term Trump presidency could usher in even stricter enforcement measures, likely accelerating removals and heightening risks for undocumented Indian immigrants.
The Pew Research Centre in July 2024 said that India had the third-largest unauthorised immigrant population in the US in 2022, behind Mexico (40 lakh) and El Salvador (7.5 lakh). In January 2025, a day after Trump’s inauguration, Secretary of State Marco Rubio raised concerns over illegal migration from India in his first meeting with external affairs minister S. Jaishankar.
Despite an increase in deportations, Indians saw a peak in asylum grants during the Trump 1.0 administration, benefiting from a stricter stance on illegal immigration that paradoxically led to higher approvals for those qualifying under asylum criteria. Under Biden, these figures have dropped sharply, reflecting a shift in enforcement priorities and a more selective asylum approval process, underscoring how policy changes influence migration outcomes beyond just border security measures.
