India enters rare calm after years of fierce cyclones

By: Team India Tracker

Weaker storms now claim far fewer lives. Cyclones, once a major cause of disaster deaths, have seen their share drop from 0.4% in 2019 to nearly zero by 2023

For decades, India’s coastline has been among the world’s most active zones for tropical storms. Between 2019 and 2023, the country faced an average of three to four cyclones each year, many strong enough to disrupt life across the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. But that pattern now seems to be shifting. Over the past two years, India has witnessed far fewer cyclones—only one in 2024 and another so far in 2025.

Meteorologists call this an unusual period of calm, though they caution that long-term weather trends remain unpredictable. For now, both the frequency and the strength of cyclones striking India have fallen sharply.

The most powerful storm in recent memory was Cyclone Mocha, a Category 5 system that tore through northeast in 2023. Mocha caused widespread destruction across the region and neighbouring countries, leaving a clear mark on disaster records. Yet since then, the country has not seen another storm of comparable intensity.

Government data show that only five cyclones have reached the top two levels on the Saffir–Simpson scale since 2019—a steep decline compared with earlier decades, when several high-intensity storms often struck within a single year. This drop in intensity has translated into fewer deaths.

Cyclones once accounted for a notable share of disaster-related fatalities, but that proportion has fallen from 0.4 per cent in 2019 to almost zero by 2023. The last significant surge came in 2021, when back-to-back storms—Cyclones Tauktae and Yaas—claimed 118 lives. Since then, stronger forecasting, better evacuation planning and improved early-warning systems have greatly reduced casualties.

Changing impact

Between 2019 and 2023, Maharashtra recorded the highest number of cyclone-related deaths, followed by Gujarat. But when measured as a share of each state’s total disaster fatalities, a different picture emerges. States that face cyclones more regularly—Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal—have developed stronger disaster-response frameworks. Years of investment in preparedness mean these coastal regions now suffer fewer deaths per storm than states that encounter cyclones less frequently.

When Cyclone Montha struck eastern coast late last month, it brought intense rain and winds to Andhra Pradesh, killing three people. The damage was limited compared with earlier disasters, reinforcing a broader trend: storms are becoming fewer, weaker and less deadly.

Bay of Bengal still the epicentre

Despite the lull, the Bay of Bengal remains India’s most cyclone-prone region, accounting for roughly 65 per cent of all storms since 2019. Warm sea temperatures and favourable wind conditions make it particularly conducive to storm formation. The Arabian Sea, traditionally calmer, has occasionally seen bursts of activity linked to rising sea-surface temperatures.

Meteorologists warn that while India is seeing fewer storms overall, the danger of rapid intensification persists. Climate change can make cyclones less frequent but stronger, as warmer oceans provide more energy once storms begin to form. The risk, experts say, is that a single severe system can now cause as much damage as several smaller storms once did.

Better prepared, better protected

The disaster management capacity has evolved considerably over the past decade. Improved early-warning networks, stricter evacuation protocols and expanded coastal shelter infrastructure have helped save lives. States such as Odisha now conduct large-scale evacuations within hours of receiving cyclone alerts. Enhanced satellite data, sophisticated forecasting models and real-time communication systems allow officials to move residents to safety well before landfall.

The results are evident. Deaths from cyclones have fallen to record lows, even in densely populated regions. The 2023 season—dominated by Mocha—ended with far fewer fatalities than comparable years a decade earlier. What once routinely resulted in hundreds of deaths now leads to limited casualties and faster recovery.

A temporary reprieve?

Experts remain wary of calling this decline permanent. The Indian Ocean is warming faster than most other ocean basins, a shift that could alter storm cycles in unpredictable ways. Climate phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña, sea-temperature anomalies and changes in wind circulation all play a role in determining how often cyclones form and how powerful they become.

For now, India is enjoying a rare pause. Fewer storms, weaker winds and a dramatic fall in fatalities mark a welcome relief after years of devastation. Yet the long-term outlook depends on two variables beyond immediate control: the direction of global climate change and India’s continued investment in coastal resilience.