Monsoon rains below normal in the country, shows IMD data

However, its journey upwards is lacking in vigour. Currently, central India has a 33 percent deficit in rainfall. North-west India is yet to see the onset of rains as it faces a 17 percent deficit. Despite monsoon lashing southern India before its schedule, the region has still received 16 percent less rainfall. Overall, India received 8 percent less rainfall over June 1 through June 19 compared with the historical average. For June 1-14, the rainfall deficit was 36 percent.

The only exception is Northeast India which has received extraordinary rainfall in the past week. While Meghalaya saw 174 per cent excess rain compared to normal levels, in Assam, rainfall was 97 per cent over normal. Assam in particular is facing a deadly wave of floods impacting over 37 lakh people in 30 districts. According to reports, deluge has killed more than 60 people in the state.

IMD has forecast a “normal” monsoon this year at 99% of long period average with margin error of +/-5%. The new LPA for the monsoon season (June to September) is the average for the period between 1971 and 2020 which is 868.6mm.

Monsoon in India is has been impacted by two factors - La Nina and negative Indian Ocean Dipol. The former refers to large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean coupled with changes in changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation which affects climate patterns in different parts of the world. Negative Indian Ocean Dipol happens when waters near the eastern Indian Ocean are warmer than normal.

Monsoon which delivers over 70 percent of the country's rainfall is considered the lifeline of India's agriculture-dependent economy. The monsoon impacts inflation, jobs, and industrial demand. Good farm output keeps a lid on food inflation. It is significant at the time when retail inflation has galloped to a 95-month high in April at 7.8 percent.