Thursday, 05 Dec, 2024
India’s total exports during April-October 2024 is estimated at $468.27 billion registering a positive growth of 7.28 percent. Image Source: IANS
India's merchandise trade imbalance with China has increased by 13 percent in the first seven months of the current fiscal year.
According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India’s exports (merchandise and services) increased from $61.48 billion in October 2023 to $73.21 billion in October this year, registering a positive growth of 19.08 percent. New Delhi’s total imports also registered a positive growth of 7.77 percent. The imports increased to $83.33 billion in October 2024 from $77.33 billion in October 2023. India’s merchandise exports increased from $33.43 billion in October 2023 to $39.20 billion in October 2024 while the imports also jumped from $63.86 billion in October 2023 to $66.34 billion in October this year.
Total Trade during October 2024
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry
India’s total exports during April-October 2024 is estimated at $468.27 billion registering a positive growth of 7.28 percent. Total imports during April-October 2024 is estimated at $531.51 billion registering a growth of 7.05 percent. The total exports increased from $436.48 billion during April-October 2023 to $468.27 billion during the same period in 2024. Talking about imports, they increased from $496.50 billion during April-October 2023 to $531.51 billion in the same period during this year.
Total Trade during April-October 2024
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Despite government initiatives to reduce dependency on the Asian manufacturing powerhouse and limits on the purchase of specific Indian products, India's merchandise trade imbalance with China has increased by 13 percent in the first seven months of the current fiscal year. The commerce and industry ministry reported that India's goods trade imbalance with China increased from $51.12 billion to $57.83 billion between April and October. The trade imbalance increased from $8.27 billion to $8.46 billion in October.
The amount of commodities imported from China increased from $60.01 billion to $65.90 billion between April and October of 2024. Compared to the same period last year, exports to China decreased to $8.06 billion from $8.89 billion. China's imports reached $9.61 billion in October, up from $9.54 billion the previous year, while exports dropped to $1.18 billion from $1.27 billion. Over the past 15 years, China has increased its share of India's industrial imports from 21 percent to 30 percent, controlling vital industries like electronics, telecommunications, and electric cars. China is also a major supplier of inputs for India's green transition.
According to experts, this dependence would only increase as India expands its manufacturing of electronics, telecom, EVs, and smartphones under its productivity linked incentive (PLI) schemes. These industries rely on 80–95 percent of their inputs, which are primarily imported from China.
According to Ajay Srivastava, a former trade service officer and the founder of the economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), 62 percent of India's imports of solar equipment come from China, and other suppliers, such as Vietnam, also rely on Chinese polysilicon for the fabrication of solar cells. According to him, China is a major supplier of lithium-ion cells and cold rolled grain oriented, or CRGO, steel, which are necessary for making transformer windings, to India's EV and transformer industries.
"This over-reliance is unsustainable as India's annual trade deficit with China, already at $80 billion, is projected to double within five years. To mitigate this growing vulnerability, India must prioritize investments in R&D and deep manufacturing, fostering a self-reliant industrial base to reduce dependence on Chinese imports and secure its economic future," Srivastava added.
According to the 2023–24 Economic Survey of India, India is unduly reliant on China for imports, particularly renewable energy, according to V. Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic adviser in the ministry of finance. According to the report, concentrating on Chinese FDI could aid in halting the widening trade gap.
Talking about India’s merchandise trade, merchandise exports during October 2024 were $39.20 billion as compared to $33.43 billion in October 2023. Merchandise imports during August 2024 were $66.34 billion as compared to $63.86 billion in August 2023.
Merchandise Trade during October 2024
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Coming over to merchandise exports during April-October 2024, they were $252.28 billion as compared to $244.52 billion during April-October 2023. Merchandise imports during April-October 2024 were $416.93 billion compared to $394.18 billion during April-October 2023. Merchandise trade deficit during April-October 2024 increased to $164.65 billion as compared to $149.67 billion during April-October 2023.
Merchandise Trade during April-October 2024
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry
The value of New Delhi’s service export for October 2024 is $34.02 billion as compared to $28.05 billion in October 2023. The estimated value of services imports for October 2024 is $17 billion as compared to $13.46 billion in October 2023.
Services Trade during October 2024
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry
The service exports during April-October 2024 increased to $215.98 billion from $191.97 billion in April-October 2023. The estimated value of service imports during April-October 2024 is $114.57 billion as compared to $102.32 billion in April-October 2023. The services trade surplus during April-October 2024 is $101.41 billion as compared to $89.64 billion in April-October 2023.
Services Trade during April-October 2024
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Top 5 export destinations, in terms of change in value, exhibiting positive growth in October 2024 vis a vis October 2023 are Singapore (197.39 percent), United Arab Emirates (43.32 percent), United States of America (11.47 percent), United Kingdom (42.12 percent) and Australia (60.41 percent). Top 5 export destinations, in terms of change in value, exhibiting positive growth in April-October 2024 vis a vis April-October 2023 are Netherland (32.92 percent), United Arab Emirates (15.86 percent), United States of America (6.31 percent), Singapore (20.78 percent) and United Kingdom (16.23 percent).
