With eye on BMC polls, Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde to make the most from their separate Dussehra rallies

By: Anshul Vipat

The Shinde faction will be holding a rally at MMRDA ground in Mumbai’s Bandra Kurla Complex while Uddhav will speak from Shivaji Park

Shivaji Park has been synonymous with the journey of Shiv Sena. Balasaheb Thackeray addressed his first rally as party supremo in 1966. The rally was a huge success and after that Bal Thackeray never looked back. It became a tradition for the leader to address his party workers on Dussehra. His Dussehra speech was the highlight in Maharashtra’s political calendar as it would indicate the party line. Top leaders like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Pramod Mahajan, George Fernandes, and Sharad Pawar had shared the stage with him. After his death in 2012, his son Uddhav Thackeray continued the tradition.

Come 2022, Uddhav will be seen addressing his workers from the same venue which had seen the swearing-in ceremonies of both the sena chief ministers, Manohar Joshi in 1995 and Uddhav Thackeray in 2019. However, this time, the party supremo had to fight hard to continue the tradition. The Eknath Shinde-led sena faction wanted to hold the annual Dussehra rally at Shivaji Park as it lays claim to the party. Uddhav also stacked claim forcing the BMC to deny permission to both citing a law and order issue. Uddhav successfully challenged the order in the court. The Shinde faction will now be holding a rally at MMRDA ground in Mumbai’s Bandra Kurla Complex while Uddhav will speak from Shivaji Park.

Uddhav might have won the court battle, but he has a bigger worry at stake. His party is now split into two factions, and it is going to be a tough battle for him to keep his party flocks together keeping the upcoming BMC elections in mind.

Why is BMC important for Sena

Much of the Sena’s political fight is usually strengthened by its power over the country’s richest civic body. It won't be wrong to call BMC as sena's flesh and blood. Winning civic elections is a prestige issue for the party. The corporation that has been under sena's control for the past three decades, is slated to go for polls in September/October 2022.

Daunting task for Thackeray

Shinde is an old guard of the party and knows inside out of the sena's apparatus. With more than two-thirds of MLAs supporting him, maintaining stronghold over the party is going to be a herculean task for Thackeray-led faction. The divide between Shinde and Thackeray will also undermine the Sena’s chances for the civic elections in Thane, Kalyan-Dombivali, Ulhasnagar, Mira-Bhayander and in Palghar, where Shinde enjoys a strong presence.

Unless Thackeray decides to mend ties with the Shinde camp, the current scenario favours the BJP for the civic polls. Four out of 14 sena MLAs of the city, Sada Sarvankar (Mahim), Prakash Surve (Magathane), Yamini Jadhav (Byculla) and Mangesh Kudalkar (Kurla) have already joined the Shinde camp and could dent Thackeray’s prospects. Thackeray has a tough task to boost the confidence of the bewildered sena cadre and keep his flocks together.

To add to Thackeray's wows is the ever-growing presence of BJP in the city. Two decades ago, BJP was almost a forgettable partner in BMC barely managing to scrape even one-third of what its then senior partner would win. However, the saffron party has slowly and gradually increased its dominance. In 2017, it came close to snatching the prestigious mayor seat by bagging 82 seats, just two less than sena.

If we talk about vote share, BJP had only managed to scrape 6.78 percent in 2012, but it managed to clout 27.32 percent votes in 2017.If we take a deeper look at the data, we could clearly see a graphic increase in BJP's popularity in the city. In the western suburbs between Bandra and Dahisar, and some eastern suburbs too previously known as Marathi strongholds, the BJP rode like a colossus. It won 49 seats in the western suburbs in the last elections.

Buoyed with the recent success, Fadnavis and his colleagues have already started drawing up plans to wrest the prestigious civic body from Shiv Sena’s control. Clearly the stakes are not in Sena’s favour. Thackeray will have to tug at the heartstrings of Mumbai’s Shiv Sainiks if he has to keep his party and its prospects alive.