Friday, 17 May, 2024
By: Anshul Vipat
While the apex court decides on the future of Maharashtra, we take a look at all the good, bad and worse options Thackeray has
The battle of Maharashtra is now reaching its conclusion. State governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari has asked Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray to prove his majority on the floor of the house on Thursday. The Governor’s order came after his late-night meeting with leader of opposition Devendra Fadnavis. Although, Thackeray has gone to the Supreme Court with the argument that Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari's order is illegal. The court is set to hear his plea today evening.
While the apex court decides on the future of Maharashtra, we take a look at all the good, bad and worse options Thackeray has.
The Numbers Game
The total strength of Maharashtra Assembly is 288. One seat is vacant due to the death of a SS MLA. It is to be seen whether jailed NCP MLAs Anil Deshmukh and Nawab Malik will be allowed to vote or not (both were debarred by the court earlier). If they are not able to, the majority mark in the Assembly, in the event of a trust vote, falls to 143. Before the crisis, MVA enjoyed the support of 151 legislators (55 SS + 53 NCP + 44 Congress and others).
Scenario 1: Rebel Shiv Sena MLAs participate in the floor test
The rebel group headed by Eknath Shinde claims to have the support of more than two-thirds Sena MLAs (39 as of now) besides a few independent legislators. If the rebel MLAs decide to cast their vote in the floor test, the MVA govt will fall. NDA is likely to get 161 votes (counting 39 rebel sena MLAs and 12 independents), 18 more than majority.
(NDA strength includes – 106 BJP, 1 JSS, 1 RSP, 2 PJP, 39 rebel sena MLAs and 12 Independents. MVA strength includes 16 Sena, 51 NCP, 44 Congress, 1 SWP, 1 CPI(M), 1 PWPI, 1 SP and 1 Independent. Votes of two jailed NCP MLAs are not counted).
Scenario 1: Rebel Shiv Sena MLAs skips the floor test
In case the rebel sena MLAs decides to stay away from voting, the total strength of assembly further falls down to 246 (also counting a vacant seat and two jailed MLAs currently debarred from voting). In that case, majority mark will be 123. Still MVA govt will fall as will be way short of majority mark.
(NDA includes 106 BJP, 1 JSS, 1 RSP, 2 PJP and 12 independents. MVA includes 16 Sena, 51 NCP, 44 Congress, 1 SWP, 1 CPI(M), 1 PWPI, 1 SP and 1 Independent. Votes of two jailed NCP MLAs are not counted).
Here, the role of “others” that includes 3 BVA, 2 AIMIM and 1 MNS MLAs will be crucial.
Can rebel MLAs stay away from floor test?
This is where the 30-year-old anti-defamation law comes into picture. Inserted by Rajiv Gandhi government in 1985, the Tenth Schedule says that a member attracts the disqualification provision if he voluntarily resigns from the party or when he defies the party’s directives by either voting against the party’s directives or abstains from voting by defying the party whip.
But the law carved out exceptions under which a member could escape disqualification. One important exception was in relation to a split in the original political party, resulting in one third of the legislators moving out and forming a separate group. In such a situation that group was not liable to be disqualified. However, a recent amendment meant that the "separate group" has to merge with another political party to avoid disqualification. So if the “merger” does not happen before the floor test, the exemption from disqualification does not apply and all become liable to be disqualified.
However, here it is important to mention recent apex court judgments as well. In 2020, while directing the then Madhya Pradesh government to hold a floor test, it had commented that members can't be compelled to be present at the floor test. "Whether or not to remain present is for the individual Members to decide and they would, necessarily be accountable for the decisions which they take", the court had said. The court had also said that the floor test need not be deferred due to pending disqualification proceedings.
A year earlier, in Karnataka Assembly case, the court also said in that case that the rebel MLAs are at liberty to remain out of the floor test proceedings. Here too, the H. D. Kumaraswamy government could not muster enough votes and fell.
