Kejriwal’s arrest likely to increase sympathies for Aam Aadmi Party, unite opposition: CVoter Survey

By: Team CVoter

Through a series of surveys, CVoter assess public opinion on Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest by the enforcement directorate in the alleged liquor policy scam and the impact on the impending Lok Sabha Elections.

Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest by the enforcement directorate (ED) in the alleged liquor policy scam after a long series of summons has sparked a new controversy in the political debacle right before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, such a move by the ED is going to affect the voters' decision in the coming elections, the Aam Aadmi Party, however, is likely to gain sympathies from such moves, shows a survey conducted by CVoter Research Foundation.

According to the survey conducted on over 1,296 respondents in India’s Hindi Speak states, nearly 63% respondents gave a net positive response when asked if ED’s move will impact the voters’ mind in the upcoming elections, about 30.8% said no and the remaining 6.5% had no opinion.

The survey showed that about 51.6% of the respondents believed that Kejriwal’s arrest is likely to increase sympathies for his party, while 39% did not. The Survey was conducted on 22nd March over a Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews.

However, a closer look at the data reveals that this belief is mostly held by the people who usually vote against the NDA parties. Nearly 63% of the opposition voters said yes when asked ‘Will the Aam Aadmi Party get sympathy votes after Kejriwal's arrest?’, while only 28.8% said no and the rest had no opinion.

In contrast, only 35% of NDA supporters believed that the party might score sympathy votes, about 55% believed it’s not going to happen.

Interestingly, when asked how eliminating the opposition would impact BJP’s vote share, about 43.6% respondents said that this will decrease the BJP’s vote share, while only 30% said BJP’s vote share will increase. Around 19.8% said that this will have no impact on the vote bank

Of these about 54% opposition voters and 26% NDA voters believed that such steps might decrease BJP’s votes, while only 22% opposition and 40% NDA voters believed that this might just increase BJP’s vote share.