Sunday, 13 Oct, 2024
By: Sutanu Guru
Source: PTI
Several political analysts believe that Mayawati delivered better governance as chief minister between 2007 and 2012 than Akhilesh Yadav was doing since 2012. Inspite of that, the party has witnessed a declining trend in both seat share and vote share in every election since 2017 barring a few hiccups in between.
Not very long ago, she was a serious contender for the post of the prime minister of India. In 2007, Mayawati had led her party BSP to a majority of its own in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. She had crafted a unique Dalit, Brahmin and Muslim alliance to sweep to power. Soon after that, the Left withdrew its support to the Dr Manmohan Singh led UPA government over the nuclear deal with the United States. The regime tottered but survived amidst scandals. Then came 26/11 that scarred the soul of the nation. It was open season for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.
Almost all the analysts were unanimous in projecting a hung parliament in 2009. Barring hard core supporters, not many saw the BJP led by L. K. Advani doing very well. And not a single analyst expected the Congress to substantially increase its 2004 Lok Sabha seat tally of 145. In the event, the Congress did win 206 seats and the UPA-2 regime was comfortably formed. Mayawati lost her chance. But her party BSP did incredibly well in Uttar Pradesh getting a 28% vote share. The BSP also won vote shares in high single digits or double digits in many other states including Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Without a shadow of doubt, Mayawati appeared to be the leader of the future as aspirational Dalits and other traditionally disadvantaged communities rallied around her.
But that was high noon for Mayawati and her stars have been dimming consistently since then. First came the 2012 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections defeat to the Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party which formed a majority government. That wasn’t considered a very bad setback as the BSP retained a 26% vote share and won 80 seats. The real crash came during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections when the Narendra Modi wave swept across Uttar Pradesh. As the accompanying chart shows, the core vote of the BSP remained loyal as the party managed a 20% vote share. But it failed to win even one out of the 80 seats on offer.
Most analysts were of the opinion that Mayawati would recover from the shock as the BSP remained a formidable force in Uttar Pradesh. Besides, quite a few thought she delivered better governance as chief minister between 2007 and 2012 than Akhilesh Yadav was doing since 2012. But she never recovered. The Modi wave that had swept across Uttar Pradesh during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections gathered even more momentum in the 2017 assembly elections, reducing all opponents to rubble. Though its vote share was a decent 22.2%, the BSP lost 61 seats and settled with a pathetic tally of 19 in a house of 403. The Lok Sabha elections of 2019 proved to be a false dawn for her. She forged an alliance with Akhilesh Yadav and the BSP & SP fought the elections together. They made a minor dent in the fortunes of the BJP and the BSP won 10 seats.
By the time the 2022 assembly elections came along, the Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party was well on a recovery path. It failed to win Uttar Pradesh but significantly increased its vote share in double digits and won a healthy 111 seats. In contrast, the BSP vote share crashed to 13% and it won just one seat. By the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Akhilesh Yadav was resurgent with the Samajwadi Party winning 37 seats compared to 33 for the BJP. Evidently, the voters of Uttar Pradesh punished the BJP. But Mayawati failed to take advantage. The BSP failed to win a single seat and its vote share dropped below 10%.
There are many theories to explain the downfall of Mayawati. Perhaps the most common sense one is that she stopped trying hard enough. Does she have a political future after 2024? Anything is possible in politics, but that scenario appears improbable.
