Delhi wants BJP in power but popular vote still with AAP

By: Damini Mehta

CVoter’s post-poll survey on Delhi elections found nearly 38% of SCs supported BJP. However, poll findings also show that AAP maintained a near 10 percentage point lead over the BJP in support amongst SCs. This answers why the AAP’s average victory margin was higher than the BJP in SC seats.

The 2025 Delhi Legislative Assembly elections, held on February 5, 2025, marked a significant political shift in India's capital. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, secured a decisive victory by winning 48 out of the 70 assembly seats, thereby ending the Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) decade-long governance. The AAP, led by Arvind Kejriwal, was reduced to 22 seats, while the Indian National Congress (INC) failed to secure any seats for the third consecutive term.

In the 2020 elections, the AAP had achieved a landslide victory, securing 62 seats with a 53.57% vote share, while the BJP managed to win only 8 seats with a 38.51% vote share. The INC did not win any seats, obtaining a 4.26% vote share. Comparatively, in 2025, the BJP's seat count increased by 40, rising from 8 to 48 seats, accompanied by a 7.05 percentage point increase in vote share to 45.56%. Conversely, the AAP experienced a significant decline, losing 40 seats to settle at 22, with a 10-percentage point decrease in vote share to 43.57%. The INC saw a slight increase in vote share to 6.34% but still failed to secure any seats.

How did AAP retain its vote share inspite of seat drop

CVoter’s post-poll survey on 2025 Delhi Assembly Polls pointed towards the shift in Delhi’s choice for government from AAP to BJP. 22% of Delhi’s voters expressed trust in Modi’s leadership and cited it as a prime reason for not voting for the AAP. Along with this, BJP was effective in convincing Delhi voters on AAP’s alleged corruption in liquor scam and Sheeshmahal controversy with 18% of voters choosing not to vote for AAP due to these reasons

Other reasons why AAP saw a decline in support was due to poor drinking water supply (16%) and poor state of local roads (11%). This points towards AAP’s failure in convincing Delhi about its governance model of free water, electricity and improved development. However, the CVoter survey always shows that AAP’s policies of free water, power and improved schools and hospitals did appeal to the lower income groups with its support base coming primarily from those earning below Rs. 20,000/- per month. Nearly 49% of residents having income between Rs 10,000 and RS, 20,000, 48% of those earning below Rs 3000 and 47% of those earning between Rs 6,000 and 10,000 voted for AAP. Vote confidence shifted towards the BJP as the income band increased. 61% of income earners above Rs. 1 lakh voted for the BJP whereas 55% of those who earned between Rs 50,000 and Rs, 1 lakh also preferred BJP over AAP.

CVoter’s post-poll survey also answered why AAP managed to retain its popular support amongst Delhites. 22% of the voters were happy with AAP’s flagship Mohalla clinic scheme and voted it for the same. Only slightly behind was the support AAP got due to free electricity at 20% followed by better schools (17.8%) another flagship governance model of the party. Only 14% of Delhi’s voters voted for the AAP due to Kejriwal’s leadership, clearly indicating towards a lack of trust in the AAP supremo.

The misaligned seat and vote share between the BJP and AAP can be explained by the victory margins of both the parties. BJP’s average victory margin increased by 2,454 votes from 2020 to 14,725 in 2025 but still remained below the AAP’s average victory margin in 2025 at 17,054. AAP also recorded a decline in average victory margin from 22,076 votes in 2020 to 17,054 in 2025.

BJP won SC seats but votes remined with AAP

Delhi has 12 constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC). In the 2020 elections, the AAP dominated these seats, winning all 12. However, in 2025, the BJP made significant inroads, capturing 7 of the 12 reserved seats, while the AAP secured the remaining 5. This shift underscores the BJP's expanding appeal among SC voters, a demographic that had previously leaned towards the AAP.

CVoter’s post-poll survey on Delhi elections found nearly 38% of SCs supported BJP. However, poll findings also show that AAP maintained a near 10 percentage point lead over the BJP in support amongst SCs. This answers why the AAP’s average victory margin was higher than the BJP in SC seats. AAP had an average victory margin of 12,755 votes in SC seats compared to BJP’s 11,789 votes. Notably, AAP’s decline in support amongst SCs is also evident in the massive drop in its victory margin on SC reserved seats between 2020 (29,133) and 2025 (12,755). Dalits comprise more than 15% of the electorate in more than half of the Delhi Assembly seats with reserved seats comprising anywhere between 20 to 25% SCs.

BJP’s Urban Charm: Not so strong

While Delhi is predominantly urban, around 18 of its seats comprise rural areas. BJP is known to be an urban centric party but Delhi’s electorate defied this trend. Of the Delhi’s 54 urban seats, AAP managed to win 17 with average victory margin at 16,176, around 2,500 votes more than BJP’s. BJP increased its seat tally in urban ACs from just 7 in 2020 to 35 in 2025 but its average victory margin remained well below the AAP’s at 13,668. That urban voters did not really shift completely from AAP to BJP in spite of the seat shift is indicative in the marginal increase in the average victory margin of the BJP between 2020 and 2025 by just 1,397. 

Of Delhi’s 18 rural seats, BJP increased its tally from 1 to 13 since the last polls, as AAP declined from 17 seats in 2020 to just 5 this time. On rural seats, BJP was a massive gainer, increasing its average victory margin from 3,719 to 17,128 in the five years. AAP recorded just a marginal decline in average victory margin on rural seats from 22,279 in 2020 to 19,296 in 2025. 

How did the Muslims vote?

CVoter’s post-poll survey on 2025 Delhi Assembly elections recorded a massive 63% support for AAP amongst Muslims. The community has been a core constituent of the INC but shifted its support towards the AAP with the rise of the party since 2012. Muslims are a dominant community in around 10 of the state’s seats with a population share more than 20%. In 2020, AAP won 9 of the 10 seats leaving one for the BJP and reducing the INC to 0. CVoter’s post-poll survey found just a little over 12% of Muslims supporting the BJP with INC’s support not far ahead at 19%.

In 2025, the Muslim vote appears to have shifted slightly towards the BJP as it increased its seat tally to 3 bringing the AAP down to 7. Clearly, a shift in Muslim votes did not go back to the INC in spite of their discontent with the AAP. The scale of Muslim discontent in AAP is also evident in the considerable drop in AAP’s average victory margin in Muslim seats from 41,904 in 2020 to 26,371 in 2025. At the same time, BJP increased the average victory margin in Muslim seats from 6,079 in 2020 to 10,223 in 2025.

Narrative game where AAP lost

Several factors contributed to this political realignment in Delhi. The arrest of AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal on graft charges tarnished the party's anti-corruption image, leading to diminished public trust. Additionally, the BJP's campaign included pledges to provide financial support to women, the elderly, and youth, resonating with a broad spectrum of voters. After a decade in power, there was also a perception of stagnation and unmet promises within the AAP administration, prompting voters to seek change. 

The 2025 Delhi Assembly elections signify a pivotal change in the city's political landscape. The BJP's return to power after 27 years reflects a combination of strategic campaigning, capitalizing on the incumbent's vulnerabilities, and effectively addressing voter concerns. As the new government takes charge, it faces the challenge of fulfilling its electoral promises and governing a diverse and dynamic metropolis.