Saturday, 12 Oct, 2024
By: Damini Mehta
Image Source: Deccan Herald
With a reduced seat share and dependence on alliance partners, the BJP, under Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, may come under increasing stress and might end up facing a policy paralysis similar to what it blamed the Congress during its UPA I and II regimes from 2004 to 2014.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are a watershed in more ways than one. After a decade-long one-party dominance under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the election results indicate a return of coalition politics to India. The General election for the formation of the 18th Lok Sabha saw a direct contest between two dominant pre-poll alliances in the form of the pre-existing NDA led by the BJP and Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance or I.N.D.I.A. comprising opposition parties from across the country. The INDIA grouping constitutes parties such as the Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh, Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, Communist Party of India (CPI) and CPI Marxist, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi and Haryana, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu amongst several other smaller regional partners. However, parties such as the TMC were part of the INDIA grouping but did not contest as an alliance partner.
Since 1962, the 2024 election marks the first time when the same party has returned to power for a third consecutive term after successfully completing the first two terms. The results indicated a clear victory for the NDA as early as 12 pm when the grouping, in existence since 2004 but having changed the alliance partners over the years, crossed the 272 halfway mark for the Lok Sabha and hovered around 295 seats. By the end of the counting day, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 240 seats but lost more than 63 seats from its highest-ever tally of 303 in 2019. The Congress, which found itself struggling to emerge as a strong opposition force in the last two Lok Sabhas, gained 47 seats since 2019, closing at 99. SP, a key alliance partner in INDIA, emerged as the third largest party with 37 seats followed by TMC at 29.
No Longer the Majority Party
The most interesting development from the Lok Sabha results announced on 4th June 2024 most definitely turned out to be the reduced mandate for the incumbent BJP under Narendra Modi. In 2014 and 2019, when the NDA came to power, the BJP had a clear majority with no need for alliance partners. It won 282 seats in 2014 and 303 seats in 2019, comfortably placed to form a government on its own. Between 2014 and 2019, the NDA’s tally jumped from 336 to 353. In both terms, the BJP formed the government under the banner of the NDA but was known to avoid alliance partners when it came to police making and decisions.
Between 2014 and now, the opposition’s helplessness was indicative of the thin strength of any one party in the Lok Sabha thereby failing to appoint a Leader of the Opposition with the backing of at least 10% of MPs. The BJP’s growing power and electoral dominance in the Lok Sabha and several state elections led to the otherwise disparate opposition parties coming together for the 2024 elections and forming the INDIA alliance. In the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP gave a rallying cry of 400 plus seats for the NDA with its slogan ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’. The opposition parties, on the other hand, mainly aimed to keep the motley group of parties together.
Regional Partners: The Key Players
The results turned out to be shocking for the BJP as it emerged as the single largest party but marked its lowest-ever tally since 2014. The party failed to come anywhere near its tally in 2014 and is now dependent on its two major alliance partners for government formation, the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) (JDU) from Bihar and N. Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP) from Andhra Pradesh. Both parties contested the 2024 elections under the NDA banner but are known to have switched alliances on more than one occasion in the past. Both parties and the leaders are also known to hold their own be it national or state elections and are power centers in their own accord in their respective states. As an example, Nitish Kumar, now popularly known as ‘Paltu Ram’ for his party and alliance hopping over the years, is hardly a reliable partner for the BJP.
The BJP is also known to cut alliance partners to size at its convenience. Political circles are replete with the BJP’s helplessness in relying on alliance partners to form a stable government this time. Post the election results, the INDIA grouping reached out to both Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu for their support in government formation. While both the leaders decided to stay put with the BJP as members of the NDA, heaping praise on Modi’s leadership, demands for ministerial berths and policy favors amongst other things is gaining pace. Both partners have expressed the desire to hold the Lok Sabha Speaker’s position, widely seen as an insurance policy against the BJP’s known tactic to break parties. The Lok Sabha Speaker has unprecedented powers when it comes to deciding on anti-defection laws and revoking membership of MPs. According to sources, both the parties are also demanding special status for their respective states, and increased financial allocations.
Stable Government: A Challenge for the BJP
Although the BJP has emerged as the single largest party in the 18th Lok Sabha, its reduced size in the lower house will be a challenge for the party which is used to bidding on its own. The party is dependent on constant support of the TDP and JD(U) for a stable government and is in a situation where the opposition grouping is also placed securely to form a government if the TDP and JD(U) shift allegiances. The BJP, under Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, may come under increasing stress and might end up facing a policy paralysis similar to what it blamed the Congress during its UPA I and II regimes from 2004 to 2014. On an ending note, the election results, an aberration from the last decade of single-party dominance, are a reflection of a healthy democratic structure with a mix of parties in the lower chamber of the Parliament. It is clearly a mandate of coordination and coalition and has given smaller alliance partners and regional parties a fresh say in both the ruling alliance and the opposition. An increased seat share of parties such as the TDP, JD (U), TMC and SP has improved representation of social groups that found themselves on the sidelines with the dominance of the BJP at the national level in the past ten years.
