BJP’s Unexpected Defeat in Uttar Pradesh: Beyond Expectation?

By: Rishav Khetan

Uttar Pradesh, a BJP stronghold for nearly a decade, handed the party its most notable setback in 2024. Even against the backdrop of the Ram Mandir inauguration in Ayodhya, the opposition alliance secured 43 seats out of the total 80 seats. The BJP's vote share in Uttar Pradesh declined from 49.6% in 2019 to 41.4% in 2024.

In the recently concluded 18th Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faced a fractured mandate, failing to secure a majority on its own. The party won 240 seats, a significant drop from the 303 seats it secured in the 2019 general elections. The most notable losses for the BJP were in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan, where it lost 29, 14, and 10 seats, respectively. The defeat of the saffron party in Uttar Pradesh has stunned the experts and pollsters, as everyone failed to gauge the mood of the voters. The debacle in these states can be attributed to low voter turnout, caste polarisation, apprehension about threats to democracy and the constitution, and powerful performance by regional parties against the BJP.

"UP ke 2 Ladko Ki Jodi” Delivers Wonders in Uttar Pradesh.

The alliance between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress in Uttar Pradesh secured a resounding victory for the opposition, dealing the BJP its most substantial blow in the election. The BJP had dubbed the Congress-SP alliance as "UP ke 2 Ladko Ki Jodi,” but this partnership managed to trump the double engine of Modi and Yogi. Uttar Pradesh, which had been a stronghold for the BJP over the past decade, handed the party its most notable setback. Even against the backdrop of the Ram Mandir inauguration in Ayodhya, the opposition alliance secured 43 seats out of the total 80 seats. The BJP's vote share in Uttar Pradesh declined from 49.6% in 2019 to 41.4% in 2024. In 72 of the 75 constituencies where it contested, the party's vote count decreased by a few thousand to 2.2 lakh votes. 

Overall, the BJP received about 65 lakh fewer votes in the state this time, raising significant concerns about the party's future prospects in Uttar Pradesh. The party experienced a significant loss in popular support throughout the state, with notable declines in vote shares across the central, southern, and eastern regions. Remarkably, out of the 80 total seats, only one constituency, Gautam Buddha Nagar, saw the BJP and its allies maintain their vote share compared to 2019.

A newfound love between SP and Dalits

The CSDS-Lokniti survey indicates a significant consolidation of Muslim and Yadav voters in favor of the INDIA grouping. According to the survey, 82% of Yadavs and 92% of Muslims supported the alliance. Additionally, the alliance successfully raised concerns among Dalit voters about potential threats to the reservation and the constitution if the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured 400 seats. The survey revealed that 56% of non-Jatav Dalits voted for the SP-led alliance, a group that had previously supported either the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) or the BJP. The BJP-led NDA managed to secure only 29% of the non-Jatav Dalit vote, a steep decline from the 48% it achieved in 2019.

The SP's strategy to create a social coalition of Pichda-Dalit-Adivasi (PDA), extending beyond their traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank, appears to have been successful in the 2024 elections. This coalition, combined with concerns about democratic and constitutional threats, significantly contributed to the BJP's losses in Uttar Pradesh and other key states.

Low Voter Turnout: A factor?

The record voter turnout in the 2014 and 2019 elections propelled the BJP to a landslide electoral victory. However, the 2024 elections saw a significant decline in voter turnout, adversely affecting the BJP's performance. Analysis of the constituencies where the BJP lost or where the victory margin decreased reveals the crucial role voter turnout played. For instance, in Kairana, the BJP candidate lost to the SP nominee by 69,116 votes, with voter turnout dropping by almost 4.7%. The total number of votes polled in Kairana in 2019 was 11,24,213, but this number decreased to 10,79,806 in 2024. Despite the increase in the number of electors between 2019 and 2024, the total number of votes polled decreased substantially. Similarly, in Muzaffarnagar, BJP leader Sanjeev Balyan lost to the SP nominee by 24,672 votes. Here, too, the voter turnout declined by 9.07 percentage points. The total number of votes polled in 2019 was 11,54,192, but in 2024, it dropped to 10,78,669, a decrease of almost 70,000 votes. In several constituencies, the total number of votes polled was even lower than the total number of votes polled in 2014. While it is difficult to definitively conclude that low voter turnout impacted the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, historical trends suggest that the BJP's prospects tend to improve with higher voter turnout.

The Lok Sabha Elections of 2014 and 2019 gave the BJP a clear majority, allowing the party to implement significant reforms such as the abolition of Article 370, the Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019, and the Agniveer schemes. However, with Narendra Modi now leading a coalition government, the anticipated laws on the Uniform Civil Code and One Nation, One Election might be deprioritised.