Friday, 17 May, 2024
By: Yash Gupte
Samajwadi Party (SP) which is the main opposition party in the 403 member Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly has ruled out any possibilities or chances of alliances and coalitions with any party like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) or the Indian National Congress (INC) in the 2024 General elections.
Samajwadi Party (SP) which is the main opposition party in the 403 member Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly has ruled out any possibilities or chances of alliances and coalitions with any party like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) or the Indian National Congress (INC) in the 2024 General elections. “The SP will fight the 2024 Parliamentary polls with its existing alliance partners and is capable enough to defeat the ruling BJP. The public mood is against the government. There is no question of any alliance with the BSP or the Congress,” said the Party’s chief spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary. He also said that currently the Samajwadi Party is focusing on improving its organizational structure which can deliver better numbers to the party in 2024 Loksabha elections.
Mr. Chaudhary further added that his party witnessed an increase in party’s vote share in the 2022 assembly elections as the vote share increased by 10% as compared to the 2017 assembly elections and some significant gains in at least 24 Loksabha constituencies. He marked that the current issues of concern for the general public like rising unemployment and exponential rise in the prices of the essential commodities tend to pose a serious challenge for the BJP in upcoming elections and this can be an opportunity for the SP to increase its voter base by highlighting these issues. Following losses in the Loksabha by-elections in Rampur and Azamgarh in July, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav abolished all party sections, including the executive committees. Since then, he has been interacting with party workers and has visited various districts to get a sense of the political pulse on the ground. SP’s defeat in the by-elections is also one of the major reasons apart from its poor performance in the 2019 Loksabha elections to make changes in its organizational structure.
The year 2017 came as a disaster for the Samajwadi party in Uttar Pradesh as it managed emerge victorious on just 47 seats while the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) won 312 seats. This came as a major setback for the SP but this was not the only one as the second one came in the 2019 Loksabha elections as the party managed to win just 5 seats. The SP hopes that, with the help of existing smaller allies such as the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), it may defeat the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 election. Akhilesh Yadav said that if the slogan of ‘BJP Bhagaao’ is being raised in Bihar than the people and political parties in other states will also follow the footsteps of Bihar. The Samajwadi party in UP has entered the election mode and is planning to give a tough fight to the ruling BJP in 2024 general elections but the numbers from the past elections show a different tale for the SP as it has not managed to pose a tough challenge for the ruling BJP.
The chart below shows the performance of SP and other major political parties in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections of 2012, 2017 and 2022.
Source: Election Commission of India
Samajwadi party recorded its best performance in the Uttar Pradesh assembly election of 2012 as it had emerged victorious on 224 seats and formed the government as Akhilesh Yadav was sworn in as the youngest chief minister of UP at the age of 38. The case was not the same in 2017 assembly election as SP’s seat tally dropped to 47 from 224 in 2012. This came as major setback for the party but managed to win 111 seats in 2022 assembly election. The Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati emerged as the second largest party in the UP assembly election of 2012 with 80 seats. In 2007, the BSP had emerged as the single largest party and had formed the government in the state with Mayawati as the CM but was reduced to just 80 seats in 2012. BJP has not been able to perform well in any of the elections held after 2007 as it managed to win just 19 seats in the 2017 assembly election and just ‘one’ seat in this year’s assembly election. BSP has been wiped out from the state of UP by the voters. Same is the case with the INC as it has been consistently performing poor in UP assembly elections. In the past 3 elections, the INC managed to win highest number of seats in 2012 as it emerged victorious on 28 seats. But the count declined to 7 in 2017 and in the 2022 UP assembly election, it managed to win on just 2 seats. It was year 1988 when the INC had formed a government in UP. RLD won 9 seats in 2012, just ‘one’ in 2017 but it improved its performance in 2022 with 8 seats. The BJP won 47 seats in 2012 election but in 2017, it emerged victorious on 312 seats with a massive mandate and vote share of 39.67%. Yogi Adityanath became the CM in 2017. The saffron party’s seat tally dropped to 255 in 2022 assembly election as some of its seats were pulled by the SP as it improved its performance from 47 in 2012 to 111 in 2022.
Source: Election Commission of India
In the last three elections to the Loksabha in Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party performed its best in the 2009 general election as it won 23 seats but managed to emerge victorious on just 5 seats in 2014 and 2019 general elections. SP couldn’t improve its performance in any of the elections after 2009. Coming over to Mayawati’s BSP, it performed its best in 2009 election as it emerged victorious on 20 seats. 2014 general election was a major political shock and setback to the party as it had to face a massive defeat as it was not able to win even a single seat. But in 2019 general elections, the party improved its performance drastically as it won 10 seats and emerged as the second largest party after the BJP. The RLD won 5 seats in 2009 Loksabha election and it has not managed to win any seat afterwards. The INC’s performance has been consistently deteriorating in the general election in UP and all over India too. INC won 21 seats in 2009 and only 2 seats in 2014. The grand old party’s tally further dropped to just ‘one’ in 2019 general election. The BJP which had won just 10 seats in 2009 election, emerged victorious with a massive mandate on 72 seats in 2014 LS elections but its tally declined to 62 in 2019 Loksabha election.
The SP has not been able to give a tough fight to the BJP in the 2014 and 2019 LS elections. BSP won more seats than the SP in 2019 LS election. Only the time and evolving political equations in UP will tell the fate of SP in 2024 Loksabha election.
