Expenditure on NREGA made through the Union Budget has been increasing consistently since Narendra Modi became Prime Minister
Many overly enthusiastic optimists had recorded that with a remarkable rebound in GDP growth, there would be less demand for jobs under NREGA-the flagship welfare programme that promises work for 100 days to any rural Indian who seeks it. After all, the GDP of the Indian economy grew at 8.7% in 2021-22 and almost all analysts are convinced GDP growth rate in the current year will hover around the 7.5% mark. Surveys conducted by C Voter-India Tracker indicate that while ordinary Indians-both in urban and rural regions-still suffer from inflation, they have become more optimistic about their financial future. And yet, data clearly indicates that distress, particularly, in rural India is still widespread as people struggle to find jobs or livelihood opportunities. According to official data released by the government, 31 million Indians sought work under the NREGA in June, 2022. That’s a record since the scheme was launched and implemented by the previous UPA regime in 2008-09. In May, 2022, 30 million Indians had sought work under the NREGA scheme. For the first time, the number of males seeking NREGA work has exceeded that of females. In simple economic terms, it means that men from rural India who traditionally migrate to cities for jobs with better pay are finding it difficult to find gainful employment in urban India. According to a survey based report released recently by the Centre for Monitoring The Indian Economy, about 14 million jobs were lost in June 2022 across the country. That could explain the surge in demand for minimum wage paying NREGA work in rural India.
When the NDA won the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister, he had stated that welfare schemes like the NREGA were outdated and didn’t really help poor Indians secure sustainable livelihoods in the long run. But the NREGA has remained an important tool to deliver welfare to rural Indians. As the accompanying chart shows, expenditure on NREGA made through the Union Budget has been increasing consistently since Narendra Modi became Prime Minister. It was approximately Rs 35,000 crore in 2014-15. The budget allocation for 2020-21 was a little less than Rs 62,000 crores. But thanks to the Covid pandemic, the actual expenditure on the scheme was a massive Rs 1,11,000 crores. In 2021-22, the amount allocated was about Rs 73,000 crores while the actual expenditure was Rs 98,000 crores. The amount allocated in the budget for the current financial year is about Rs 73,000 crores. But looking at the record number of people seeking NREGA work in recent months, it is clear that the actual expenditure will be far higher.
In effect, the NREGA is not a welfare scheme that is going away anywhere in the near future, despite critics saying it is a waste of valuable resources for jobs that create no sustainable assets. The reason is simple and has been repeated ad nauseam by analysts. India still fails to create enough manufacturing jobs to enable rural Indians to contemplate better livelihood opportunities.