Friday, 17 May, 2024
By: Anshul Vipat
The way recent events have unfolded has raised serious questions on the chief minister and the ruling alliance
Political crisis looms for the Uddhav Thackeray government in Maharashtra after Shiv Sena leader and state minister Eknath Shinde is said to be camping at a hotel in Surat with his party MLAs. According to reports, there are a total of 22 Sena MLAs at the hotel, five of them ministers.
The setback comes hours after BJP trumped the Maha Vikas Aghadi ruling alliance in the legislative council elections by winning all the five seats it had contested. Despite being short on numbers, BJP managed to elect its 'extra' contestant defeating Congress candidate Chandrakant Handore.
This was the second setback to the ruling alliance that had to face embarrassment a few days back after BJP managed to grab three Rajya Sabha seats, while the ruling alliance secured three, with one each for Sena-NCP-Congress, while the Sena’s second candidate was defeated.
The recent development can further lead to instability in Uddhav Thackeray government.
The Number Game
The total strength of Maharashtra Assembly is 288. One seat is vacant due to the death of a SS MLA while two NCP MLAs Anil Deshmukh and Nawab Malik are in jail and are debarred to vote by the court. This means the majority mark in the Assembly, in the event of a trust vote, is now 143.
Before the crisis, MVA enjoyed the support of 151 legislators (55 SS + 53 NCP + 44 Congress and others) while opposition BJP had 106 MLAs. As per reports, 26 are learnt to be holed up in the Surat hotel, and if these MLAs resign or abstain from voting, Sena's number comes down to 29. This would bring down the Maha Vikas Aghadi's strength in the House to 125, below the majority mark.
Apart from the numbers, the way recent events have unfolded has raised serious questions on the chief minister and the ruling alliance.
Friend turned foe
Eknath Shinde deserting Thackeray senior raises questions on the latter’s leadership. A four-time MLA, Shinde had played a crucial role in strengthening the Sena in the state, particularly in the Thane region. He is considered close to Matoshree. It was him that Thackeray had entrusted the responsibility of taking care of the Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress MLAs who were housed in different resorts across Mumbai just after 2019 assembly election results. Less than three years, the veteran sena man has turned the tables for his senior counterpart.
Rejuvenated BJP
After the formation of Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, the BJP was on the back foot. The party also had to face a loss in recent assembly bypolls. However, the twin strikes by BJP in recent days have reignited the Devendra Fadnavis-led camp. The opposition leader who played the role of master strategist has vividly and starkly underscored his pre-eminence.
Buoyed with the success, Fadnavis and his colleagues are now drawing up the list of future campaigns. Fadnavis has already declared party's intention to sweep Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra on its own in 2024 and repeat the performance in assembly polls later. In 2019, BJP had managed to get 26% vote share against SS and NCP’s 16%. It is important to note that BJP had won 105 seats despite contesting only on 152 seats.
It is also evident that the rejuvenated BJP camp will gear up to wrest Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation from Shiv Sena’s control. BJP has been repeatedly cornering Sena over corruption scandals in the civic body, failure to restore OBC reservation and infrastructure issues. In 2017, SS had came close to losing its prestigious mayor seat which had managed bagged just two seats more than its erstwhile ally to regain power. Only 10 years ago, the BJP had 28 seats, barely a third of the Sena’s 84 then.
