India’s Next PM: Modi Leads, but Rahul Gains

By: Damini Mehta

Narendra Modi, while still the most preferred candidate, has seen a noticeable decline in support, dropping to 49.1% from 52.3% in August 2023.

The India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey conducted in August 2024 highlights the evolving public perception regarding who is best suited to be India’s next Prime Minister. Narendra Modi, while still the most preferred candidate, has seen a noticeable decline in support, dropping to 49.1% from 54.9% in January 2024 and 52.3% in August 2023. This trend suggests a gradual waning of his popularity over the past year. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi has experienced a significant rise in acceptance, with his support growing from 13.8% in January 2024 to 22.4% in August 2024. This marks the highest level of support he has received during the surveyed period, indicating increasing public alignment with his political narrative and actions. 

Arvind Kejriwal, once seen as a formidable contender, has witnessed a sharp decline in popularity, with his support plummeting from 6.5% in August 2022 to just 1.3% in August 2024. This decline could be attributed to his diminishing influence on the national stage. Meanwhile, other potential candidates such as Yogi Adityanath and Amit Shah have maintained relatively stable but low support levels, with Yogi at 3.6% and Amit Shah at 1.5% in August 2024. Their consistent figures suggest a steady but limited appeal. Similarly, Mamta Banerjee and Manmohan Singh have not gained significant traction, reflecting their limited acceptance as prime ministerial candidates on a national scale. 

Additionally, the proportion of respondents selecting ‘Others’ or remaining undecided (categorized as ‘Don’t Know/Can’t Say’) has stayed fairly consistent, with 8.3% for Others and 11.1% for DK/CS in August 2024. This indicates a segment of the population that remains either skeptical or undecided about the current political leaders. In summary, while Narendra Modi continues to lead as the preferred choice for Prime Minister, the rise in support for Rahul Gandhi coupled with Modi’s declining popularity could signal a potential shift in the political landscape as the next election approaches.