Friday, 17 May, 2024
By: Anshul Vipat
Despite 27 years of anti incumbency, the vote share of the BJP has improved
The increased vote share looks like a clear indicator of voter endorsement of the party
The BJP has won a massive majority in Gujarat winning over 150 seats -- a record in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state, surpassing the Congress score of 149 in 1985. The Congress has registered its worst score ever, with its lead confined to 17 by the massive BJP surge, while AAP, which had conducted an all-out campaign and won the civic polls in Delhi in a straight fight with the BJP, appears set to open account in Gujarat, winning 5 seats. The state’s assembly has 182 seats and the majority mark in Gujarat is 92.
Despite 27 years of anti incumbency, the vote share of the BJP has improved from 49.1% in 2017 to 52.6% in these elections. In 2017, the BJP had won 99 seats, the lowest tally for the party since it first came to power in Gujarat in 1995.
The increased vote share looks like a clear indicator of voter endorsement of the party despite the state facing a number of vexing problems ranging from unemployment to exam paper leaks to a sudden stagnation in growing agricultural prosperity.
In 2017, the Congress had put of a spirited fight and given a scare to the ruling BJP.
Party-wise vote share
BJP has won the assembly election even after ruling the state almost continuously since 1995. By the time the next elections are due in 2027, the party would have ruled the state of Gujarat continuously for 32 years. The only other major state where a party or alliance has dominated electoral politics for longer is West Bengal where the Left Front led by the CPI(M) ruled for 34 consecutive years.
Entry of AAP
The AAP in Gujarat has got around 12% vote share and is leading in eight seats out of the 182 seats. The party had fielded its candidate on all 182 assembly seats and carried out a high-decibel campaign in the run-up to the polls to breach the BJP's Gujarat bastion. During the election campaign, the AAP positioned itself and its national convenor Kejriwal as the sole challenger of the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi respectively.
Thus, AAP has now emerged as a formidable third force in the state.
Voting for Gujarat was held on December 1 and December 5. Voter turnout stood at 66.31%, lower than the 71.28% recorded in the 2017 assembly elections. Ahead of this month’s elections, the BJP’s number in the House stood at 110 and Congress at 60 after 20 MLAs who won on Congress seats switched over to the BJP in the last five years, three of them quitting just ahead of the elections.
