BJP projected to sweep Gujarat Assembly Elections

By: Sutanu Guru

These findings were revealed by an exclusive opinion poll conducted by C Voter for ABP News  in the state of Gujarat to gauge popular perceptions and voting intentions

The ruling Bhartiya Janata Party looks all set to sweep the forthcoming assembly elections in Gujarat that were formally announced by the Election Commission of India on November 3. These findings were revealed by an exclusive opinion poll conducted by C Voter for ABP News  in the state of Gujarat to gauge popular perceptions and voting intentions. According to the opinion poll, the BJP is projected to win between 131 to139 seats in the elections to the assembly that has a total strength of 182 seats.

During the previous assembly elections in 2017, the BJP had won 99 seats. The Congress tally is expected to drop precipitously from 77 seats in 2017 to between 31 and 39 seats this time. The surprise package is the Aam Aadmi Party that is projected to win between 7 to 15 seats. As a party, AAP was virtually non existent in Gujarat in the 2017 elections. A total of more than 22,000 respondents were contacted for the survey using random sampling techniques.

If the projections largely hold good, the BJP will win an assembly election even after ruling the state almost continuously since 1995. By the time the next elections are due in 2027, the party would have ruled the state of Gujarat continuously for 32 years. The only other major state where a party or alliance has dominated electoral politics for longer is West Bengal where the Left Front led by the CPI(M) ruled for 34 consecutive years. Interestingly, the number of seats projected to be won by the BJP look set to jump in a big anger despite a fall in the vote share. Compared to an actual vote share of 49.1% in 2017, the BJP vote share this time is projected to be 45.4%. At the same time, the Congress vote share is projected to slump to 29.1%; giving the BJP a vote share lead of more than 16%.