Are Bye Election Results A Peep Into 2024?

Two thirds of the respondents stated that the bye election results of Uttar Pradesh are a pointer of what could happen in 2024;

Normally, bye election results do not create a flutter because they do not affect the stability of state and central governments. Besides, even voter turnout is lower than in assembly or Lok Sabha elections. However, results of bye elections in two Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh have actually created a flutter. One of them, Azamgarh, is considered to be a bastion of the Samajwadi Party and has sent both father Mulayam Singh Yadav and son Akhilesh Yadav to the Lok Sabha. The other,Rampur, has been a stronghold of veteran SP leader Azam Khan. Akhilesh Yadav and Azam Khan had won from Azamgarh and Rampur respectively in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and vacated them after they won assembly seats in the 2022 UP elections. Analysts were surprised when the BJP wrested both the seats from the SP. Both the constituencies have large number of Muslim and Yadav voters. In fact, Muslims constitute more than 50% of the electorate in Rampur. These results inevitably raised questions if opposition parties were failing to successfully challenge a dominant BJP and if they offer a hint of what might happen during Lok Sabha elections in 2024.

C Voter-India Tracker conducted a survey to find out what ordinary Indians felt about the issue. The responses cannot be good news for opposition parties. Overall, two thirds of the respondents stated that the bye election results of Uttar Pradesh are a pointer of what could happen in 2024; which is yet another victory for the BJP. Surprisingly, almost 54% of opposition supporters seemed to agree with contention. Its rare for opposition supporters to think that their rival party is all set to win the next elections. The feeling was aired across all ethnic identities, and even the rural urban divide. Two out of every three respondent from both rural and urban India were of the opinion that the bye election results would be repeated during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Amongst ethnic groups, 67% of scheduled tribes, 70% of other backward castes and 77% of upper caste Hindus were convinced the bye election results were a pointer to what will happen in 2024. About 55% of scheduled castes or tribes shared the same sentiment. There was a difference when it came to income groups. While 62% of low income respondents agreed with the contention, more than 76% of high income respondents shared the sentiment.

The BJP won 282 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and increased its tally to 303 in the 2019 elections. In 2019, the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati had forged an alliance to fight the BJP.