Apple’s new iPhones test India demand as prices run up to 45% above US

By: Team India Tracker

Apple can still command a premium, and its wealthiest customers are unlikely to switch. But India’s premium market cannot grow forever by extracting more from the same buyers

Apple’s latest pricing in India has created an uncomfortable anomaly: one of its most important growth markets is now also one of its most expensive.

The new iPhone Duo makes the point starkly. Priced between Rs 2,99,900 and
Rs 4,49,900 in India, the foldable costs roughly Rs 1.4 lakh more than in the US and Dubai. The gap is wide enough to make buying the phone abroad a rational option for affluent Indians who travel frequently.

The social-media jokes about recovering the cost of an overseas trip from the savings may be exaggerated. The underlying economics is not. When the official domestic price diverges sharply from prices abroad, overseas purchases and grey-market imports become more attractive.

That is why retailers are worried. The All India Mobile Retailers Association and the Organised Retailers Association fear that premium customers could bypass authorised stores altogether. The consequences would extend beyond retailers: informal imports could also mean a loss of revenue to the exchequer.

The timing is awkward for Apple. IDC India and Counterpoint Research have cut their outlook for iPhone sales and now expect unit sales to decline by low single digits in calendar 2026 — the first annual fall in India. Yet sales by value are still expected to rise by 6-7 per cent because of higher prices.

That distinction matters. Higher revenue generated by higher prices is not the same as stronger demand. A premium market can sustain that trade-off for a while, but long-term growth requires a widening customer base.

The Duo is an extreme case because it is not being manufactured locally. Imported units attract a 17 per cent import duty and 18 per cent GST, while rupee depreciation adds another 5-6 per cent impact. Counterpoint Research estimates the combined effect at more than 40 per cent.

But the repricing extends beyond the foldable. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are about 45 per cent more expensive in India than in the US, while older models have seen increases of 20-29 per cent, against 10-15 per cent in several other markets.

This matters because it narrows the choices available to consumers. Buyers priced out of the newest model would normally move down to an older generation. With prices rising across the range, that safety valve has weakened.

The increases partly reflect a global problem. Apple has cited rising memory and storage-chip costs, as AI-driven demand for data centres intensifies competition for these components.

India, however, has seen a particularly sharp adjustment. Apple raised prices in the US by between 10 per cent and 21 per cent, while some older models in India saw increases of as much as 41 per cent.

The longer-term trend is also striking. According to a Moneycontrol calculation, iPhone Pro prices in India have risen by as much as 65 per cent since 2018, compared with a 46 per cent rise in consumer prices over the same period.

Apple retains considerable pricing power, and its wealthiest customers are unlikely to abandon the brand. But the Indian premium market cannot expand indefinitely by charging more to the same group of consumers.

The real risk is simpler: a sufficiently large gap between Indian and overseas prices changes where Indians buy their phones.

Apple may still increase the value of its Indian business while selling fewer handsets. But if higher prices push more consumers towards overseas purchases and informal imports, rising revenue could come at the expense of the market Apple has spent years building.