Assembly Bye Elections: Nth Wake Up Call For Congress

By: Sutanu Guru

Of the seven seats for which bye elections were held, the Congress claimed to be a serious contender in three seats- Manugode, Dhamnagar in Odisha and Adampur in Haryana.

Most media outlets and platforms have paid more attention to the fact that the BJP has done very well in the bye elections to seven assembly seats spread across India. The party had three seats before the bye elections; now it has four after results were declared on November 6, 2022. According to political commentators, this is a boost for the BJP ahead of assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat where it is in power. Analysts have also pointed out how regional political parties like the RJD, Shiv Sena (Uddhav) and TRS have won key seats in Bihar, Maharashtra and Telengana. However, not much attention has been paid to the fortunes of the Grand Old Party or the Congress. Prior to the bye elections, the Congress held two seats; Adampur in Haryana and Manugode in Telengana. Its tally was zero after results were announced. Bye election results are not that important in the national political landscape. Yet, the alarm bells for the Congress should be loud and clear.

Of the seven seats for which bye elections were held, the Congress claimed to be a serious contender in three seats- Manugode, Dhamnagar in Odisha and Adampur in Haryana. The Congress did not contest in the other four seats. Look at the first chart which shows the vote shares of the BJP and the Congress in these three seats. The consolation prize for the Congress comes from Adampur in Haryana where it won 39.35% of the vote share. But that is small consolation because Congress leader Kuldeep Bishnoi quit the party and his seat to join the BJP and fielded his son from Adampur. The Manugode results are alarming. Senior Congress leader K Rajagopal Reddy joined the BJP, resigned his seat and contested the bye election. The TRS won the seat. But the BJP won 38.38% of the vote share compared to just 10.58% for the Congress. If you are Congress supporter, the results of the Dhamnagar seat in Odisha would be distressing. The BJP retained the seat with a 49.09% of the vote share. In contrast, the Congress won a pathetic 2.18% of the vote share. Clearly, the party is becoming irrelevant in Telengana and Odisha. The Congress is irrelevant or becoming irrelevant in states like Tripura, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, Tamil Nadu and other states. How does it hope to win more than 100 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 in such a situation?

There is more trouble in store for the Congress. According to the C Voter survey cum opinion poll conducted recently for Gujarat, the Aam Aadmi Party is taking away a huge chunk of the Congress vote and is projected to win more than 20% of the vote share. Other credible surveys like the one done by Lokniti-CSDS reaffirm this. If the projections hold, Gujarat will become yet another state where the Congress will start marching towards political irrelevance in the future. Congress supporters must be wondering: what next?