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World 19-Jul, 2024

Western Europe's Demographic Shift: Fact or Fearmongering?

By: Muskan Agrawal

Western Europe's Demographic Shift: Fact or Fearmongering?

Source: iStock

In recent decades, Western Europe's demographics have undergone significant changes, heavily influenced by migration. Data shows that migration, particularly between 2010 and 2016, fueled the growth of the Muslim community. Historical migration trends in the 20th century have also shaped the present demographic landscape.

Migration emerged as the most significant factor driving the growth of Muslim population in Europe between mid-2010 and 2016. An estimated 25 lakh Muslims arrived in Europe for purposes other than seeking asylum, such as education and employment. Additionally, around 13 lakh Muslims received or were expected to receive refugee status, allowing them to remain in Europe. However, an estimated 2 lakh Muslims also left the region during this period. 

According to a report from the Pew Research Centre, share of Muslim in Europe’s population grew steadily from 4% in 1990 to 6% in 2010. In Western Europe, they now constitute 10% of the French population, the largest in the Western world. Other Western European countries with significant Muslim populations include Germany (6%), the Netherlands (7%), Belgium (7.5%), and Austria (6.8%). The high fertility rates among Muslim residents are expected to fuel population growth even in the event of complete migration cessation. This is demonstrated by the nearly 30 lakh increase in the Muslim population that resulted from natural increases between 2010 and 2016, compared to the mere 16 lakh increase in the non-Muslim population.

The changing demography has brought to light significant challenges related to integration and social cohesion. In contrast to Western Europe, where the Muslim population increased by nearly 4% and Northern Europe by 2%, the Muslim population in Europe grew by only 1.9%. The response to these demographic changes has been mixed, with some countries implementing progressive policies to facilitate integration, while others have struggled with rising xenophobia and discrimination.   

Tensions are rising in France, home to one of Europe’s largest Muslim minorities, ahead of the snap election run-off. The far right led the first round of parliamentary elections, causing anxiety among France’s 60 lakh Muslims. Many feel betrayed as 1.06 crore voters support the-right wing National Rally movement promoting public veil bans. The party has long targeted Muslims, calling for hijab bans and proposing discriminatory policies. In response, Muslim and Left voters have strategically allied to counter the far-right threat and prevent Le Pen's party from gaining power.