Pahalgam terror attack shakes J&K’s tourism revival, puts security back in focus

By: Shantanu Bhattacharji

Tourism is vital to J&K’s economy, contributing 8.47% to its GDP. As the sector rebounds, its share of non-tax revenues rose to 0.5% by December 2024, up from 0.3% in 2023-24 and 0.2% earlier.

Jammu & Kashmir’s tourism boom has been jolted by a deadly terrorist strike in Pahalgam that left 26 dead. Beyond the tragic loss of life, the attack has disrupted the region’s fragile economic rebound and cast a shadow over the Centre’s peace-and-progress messaging. The incident threatens to reverse recent gains in tourist footfall and investor confidence in the Valley.

With iconic attractions such as the Vaishno Devi temple, Amarnath cave, Raghunath temple, Mansar Lake, Gulmarg, Dal Lake, and Pahalgam, the union territory holds vast untapped potential as a tourism-driven economy. But sustaining that promise will require more than scenic beauty—it will demand security, trust, and stability. The challenge now is not just to reassure tourists, but to restore investor and local confidence through credible, visible measures that ensure safety is more than just a perception.

Several media reports mentioned that the Union Territory (UT) welcomed a record 30 lakh tourists in 2024, up from 27 lakh a year earlier. The famed Tulip Garden in Srinagar alone saw more than 8 lakh visitors in just 26 days after its March 26 opening. If this pace holds, 2025 could set yet another high. But headline numbers tell only part of the story.

Average tourist spending in J&K is estimated at around Rs 5,000–Rs 7,000 per day for domestic travellers and Rs 10,000–Rs 15,000 for international visitors, including on hotels, food, transport, and shopping. That translates to over Rs 15,000 crore ($1.8 billion) in direct tourism earnings for 2024—up from Rs 12,000 crore in 2023.

Yet, as recent events show, this enthusiasm remains fragile. A terrorist attack on Tuesday has raised serious concerns about the security situation and its potential to disrupt the tourism momentum. While such incidents can temporarily halt growth, the challenge lies in restoring confidence quickly to prevent long-term damage.

Tourism plays a key role in J&K’s economy, contributing 8.47 per cent to the region’s GDP. This share has been steadily increasing as the sector rebounds, with tourism-related revenues now accounting for 0.5 per cent of non-tax revenues (NTR) as of December 2024—up from 0.3 per cent in 2023-24 and 0.2 per cent in the two previous years. With a quarter of the fiscal year still to be accounted for, tourism receipts have already exceeded last year’s total, more than doubling pre-revival levels.

Capitalising on this momentum, the UT rolled out a dedicated tourism policy in 2020, targeting 50,000 jobs annually and aiming to attract Rs 2,000 crore in annual investment for five years. The numbers suggest that tourism is beginning to meet these ambitious targets, but sustaining this growth will require shielding the sector from both economic and geopolitical shocks. For J&K, ensuring the long-term viability of tourism will not only strengthen its economic resilience but also support broader regional development, helping stabilise local economies and diversify growth opportunities beyond traditional sectors.

A Rs 1,000 crore budget has been earmarked for better infrastructure, air connectivity, and the creation of 75 new tourist destinations, alongside the establishment of 75 heritage, cultural, and religious sites. These initiatives, including the introduction of on-arrival visas for foreign tourists, reflect a clear recognition of tourism’s role in the region’s future.

Yet, behind these grand plans lies a simple truth: no amount of infrastructure investment or promotional campaigns can safeguard the sector from instability. As recent events have painfully reminded us, the region remains vulnerable to security challenges. The terrorist attack on Tuesday casts a shadow over the optimism that has been building for years. Such incidents not only dampen the spirits of tourists but also risk undermining the very foundation of the Centre’s efforts to rejuvenate Kashmir’s economy.