India’s trade shows mixed trends in October as deficit widens

By: Team India Tracker

The widening imbalance drove the trade deficit for the month to around US$ 21.80 billion, compared with about US$ 9.05 billion a year earlier.

India’s merchandise and services trade displayed a mixed picture in October 2025 and over the period from April to October of the fiscal year, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry on 17 November. In October alone, total exports (merchandise plus services) were estimated at about US$ 72.89 billion, a slight decline compared with the same month a year earlier. On the other hand, total imports rose significantly to an estimated US$ 94.70 billion, up from the prior-year figure of approximately US$ 82.44 billion. This widening imbalance drove the trade deficit for the month to around US$ 21.80 billion, compared with about US$ 9.05 billion a year earlier. 

India’s Total Trade in October 2025

Source: Press Information Bureau

Looking at merchandise trade in October, exports dropped to about US$ 34.38 billion from US$ 38.98 billion a year ago, while imports increased to around US$ 76.06 billion from US$ 65.21 billion.

Over the April-to-October period, however, the picture is somewhat more encouraging on the exports side. Combined merchandise and services exports reached about US$ 491.80 billion, up from US$ 469.11 billion in the same period last year. Imports in the same period rose to about US$ 569.95 billion, from US$ 539.02 billion, leading to a trade deficit of roughly US$ 78.14 billion compared with US$ 69.92 billion a year ago. 

India’s Total Trade during April- October 2025

Source: Press Information Bureau

Drilling into some key highlights of export performance, non-petroleum, non-gems and jewellery merchandise exports in October were estimated at about US$ 28.14 billion, down from US$ 31.32 billion in the same month last year. Over the April-to-October period those exports stood at about US$ 203.40 billion, up from US$ 194.41 billion in the prior period.

Among the bright spots in October were items such as electronic goods, meat, dairy & poultry products, marine products, cashew and coffee. For instance, exports of electronic goods rose from US$ 3.43 billion in October last year to about US$ 4.08 billion in October 2025. Meat, dairy and poultry exports rose from US$ 0.45 billion to US$ 0.58 billion, and cashew exports doubled approximately from US$ 0.03 billion to US$ 0.06 billion. On the import side, the volume of goods such as petroleum, crude and products, iron & steel, newsprint, pulses and coal recorded declines in October compared to the same month last year. 

For the services segment, export earnings during April to October were estimated at about US$ 237.55 billion, up from US$ 216.45 billion a year earlier, while services imports were about US$ 118.87 billion, slightly above the US$ 114.96 billion recorded in the prior period. The services trade surplus in that period stood at around US$ 118.68 billion, against about US$ 101.49 billion in the year-ago period. 

What this implies is that although India has managed to grow its exports over the longer period (April to October), the slump in merchandise exports in October and the sharper rise in imports are areas of concern. Particularly, the widening trade deficit means more foreign exchange outflow and could put pressure on the current account if the trend continues. At the same time, the services sector remains a strong pillar, contributing to narrowing the gap somewhat and providing resilience.

In the context of India’s broader economic strategy, including efforts to boost manufacturing, deepen export markets, and reduce dependence on petroleum imports, this trade snapshot serves as an important barometer. The uptick in specific sectors such as electronics and agri-processed goods suggests that diversification efforts are gaining ground. But the drop in overall merchandise exports in October signals that the export momentum remains fragile and could be vulnerable to global demand fluctuations or supply-chain disruptions.

Going forward, sustaining and building on the stronger segments, while addressing the drag from sectors under stress and managing import growth, will be key to improving the trade balance and supporting India’s ambition to be a more export-oriented economy.