When First Past The Post Becomes Irrelevant: Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand

By: Sutanu Guru

0.8% drop in national vote share led to the BJP losing 63 seats while a less than 2% vote share gain led the Congress almost double its seat tally to 99 seats. Yet, in Himachal, the BJP won all four seats with comfortable margins. The state witnessed a strictly bipolar contest. Even though the BJP vote share dropped by close to 13% and the Congress vote share jumped by more than 14%.

In the two previous stories, we have used data to try and understand how the first past the post system in India leads to major changes in seats won even though vote shares don’t change significantly. This trend is starkly evident in states like Punjab, Maharashtra, Haryana and Odisha. As these stories attracted modest attention in social media, I posted on X (Twitter) about the impact of the Agniveer scheme which seems to have persuaded lots of voters to dump the BJP. My question was: if Agniveer indeed triggered such massive anger against the BJP, how come there was no impact in two “Agniveer” states Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand? A Congress supporter who retweets my posts if I am critical of the BJP pointed out that the BJP has lost vote shares in the two states in a big way in 2024. Its rare, but we don’t abuse each other. That apart, what about Himachal & Uttarakhand?

The accompanying chart above does show a very big drop in the BJP vote share of BJP in 2024 compared to 2019: 12.67%. Simultaneously, the Congress vote share shot up by 14.37%. You might recall how a 0.8% drop in national vote share led to the BJP losing 63 seats while a less than 2% vote share gain led the Congress almost double its seat tally to 99 seats. Yet, in Himachal, the BJP won all four seats with comfortable margins. How did that happen? First, unlike Punjab, Maharashtra and Haryana about which we have written, Himachal was a strictly bipolar contest. Even though the BJP vote share dropped by close to 13% and the Congress vote share jumped by more than 14%, the gap between the two was still 15%. In a bipolar contest, that kind of vote share gap makes it a no contest. But students of politics will no doubt notice that the Congress has been trailing far behind the BJP in Lok Sabha vote shares thought it performs much better during assembly elections. 

There is something similar that has happened in Uttarakhand, though with a twist. The vote share drop for the BJP in the state in 2024 is about 4.2% and the rise in the Congress vote share was about 1.5%. Unlike Himachal Pradesh, there has been no significant change in vote shares. So it is no surprise that the BJP has once again won all five seats in the 2024 elections. Unlike Himachal, Uttarakhand is also different in another way. Since the state was formed in 2000, power has changed hands between the two till 2012. The Congress won the assembly elections in 2012 by a narrow margin, but it has lost the 2017 and 2022 assembly elections despite so called anti-incumbency. The BJP changed three chief ministers before the 2022 assembly elections. And yet won a big mandate.

What’s the lesson or message? Simple. When the vote share gap is yawning, even a big drop in vote shares makes no difference. In the next story in this series, we will analyse how this dictum played out in Tamil Nadu where the DMK led alliance won all 39 seats.