Friday, 17 May, 2024
By: Sutanu Guru
The last few days have witnessed a lot of drama and shenanigans in Delhi. The Central Bureau of Investigations raided the premises of the deputy chief minister of Delhi and Aam Aadmi Party leader Manish Sisodia. Residences and offices of about a dozen officials and others were also raided.
The last few days have witnessed a lot of drama and shenanigans in Delhi. The Central Bureau of Investigations raided the premises of the deputy chief minister of Delhi and Aam Aadmi Party leader Manish Sisodia. Residences and offices of about a dozen officials and others were also raided. The raids were ostensibly to gather evidence to support allegations that Sisodia and 14 others named in the CBI FIR had committed irregularities while launching and implementing a new excise policy for liquor in November, 2021. India Tracker is not a platform to air noisy debates, accusations and counter accusations by political parties. But a statement made by Manish Sisodia was noteworthy. While defending himself, the leader bluntly asserted that the 2024 elections would be a fight between the BJP and the AAP and that the BJP s scared of the growing popularity of AAP Supremo Arvind Kejriwal.
What does data say about this bold assertion? One is data based on perceptions. The other is hard electoral data. Gong by perceptions, it does appear as if Arvind Kejriwal is emerging as a national leader. The chart below is based on the latest Mood of the Nation survey conducted on behalf of the magazine India Today by C Voter. The results are revealing.
Despite a poor nationwide electoral track record bar Delhi and Punjab, Kejriwal does appear to be an incipient threat to the hegemony enjoyed by the BJP in national politics. About 18 months ago in January 2021, 20% of respondents in the bi annual India Today poll were of the opinion that Arvind Kejriwal is the most suited among current leaders to lead the opposition alliance. The Trinamool Congress Supremo Mamata Bannerjee also got a thumbs up from 11% of the respondents. In August 2022, 27% favour Kejriwal while 20% have opted for Mamata. Gong by this data set alone, one can perhaps say that Sisodia does have a point when he tom toms how popular his leader has become and how he is emerging as a serious alternative in national politics. A few days ago, when Arvind Kejriwal made his prime ministerial ambitions crystal clear by launching a nationwide campaign to “Make India Number 1”, C Voter-India Tracker conducted a snap poll to find out responses of ordinary Indians. The following question was asked: Do you think Arvind Kejriwal can emerge as the opposition’s PM candidate through his Make India Number 1 Mission? A surprisingly high 48% of the respondents answered in the affirmative. Interestingly, more than 50% of female respondents agreed with the contention.
So much for data based on perceptions. What about electoral data? Barring two spectacular victories in Delhi assembly elections in 2015 and 2020 and one spectacular assembly election victory in Punjab the, cupboard does appear bare for AAP. Lets look at data from the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In what could be misplaced enthusiasm and confidence of a Start Up (AAP was founded in 2012), the party announced that it is the real national alternative. Some months prior to that, Kejriwal had become nationally famous as a giant killer by defeating the popular three term chief minister of Delhi, the late Sheila Dixit by 25,000 votes in her own constituency. In 2014, he announced he will contest against the BJP PM candidate Narendra Modi in the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat. In addition, AAP fielded candidates in 432 seats out of a total of 543 seats in Lok Sabha. It surprised analysts by winning four seats in Punjab. But that was all. AAP forfeited deposits in 413 seats. It lost all 7 Lok Sabha seats in Delhi to the BJP by decisive margins but had the consolation of being number 2 with a vote share of 33%, far ahead of the Congress that got about 18%.
Mellowed by experience, AAP had significantly lowered its ambitions during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and decided to concentrate on states where it could emerge as a strong alternative. But even its modest ambitions suffered a jolt in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. AAP had fielded a little over 40 candidates spread across nine states. It hoped to win many seats in Punjab and Delhi and win large enough vote shares in states like Haryana and Goa to get noticed. It was disappointed. AAP won only one seat in all, from Punjab. The party faced a huge setback in its stronghold Delhi. Its vote share dropped from 33% in 2014 to 18.1% and it was third behind the BJP and Congress. In fact, AAP forfeited deposits in two Delhi seats. In states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, its vote share could not even reach 0.1%. In Haryana where it hoped to do well, the party got 0.36% of the vote share. Even in Punjab, the party managed a 7.38% vote share.
Can the AAP vote share skyrocket from almost nothing to above 20% in the less than two years left for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections? India Tracker doesn’t offer any opinion.
From Lok Sabha to assembly, the AAP electoral track record barring Delhi and Punjab has been underwhelming. As Arvind Kejriwal and a host of AAP leaders travel across Gujarat campaigning for the assembly elections due in December this year, party supporters and strategists confidently assert that the party will spring a big surprise this time. They cite internally conducted opinion polls to back up their claims. Besides, they argue that the voter in Gujarat is fed up after 27 years of continuous BJP rule and wants a change. Their logic is: since Congress has proven a failure at combating the BJP, the Gujarat voters will move in droves towards AAP. We will know how true these clams are by the end of this year.
Interestingly, AAP leaders had made similar claims about Goa and Uttarakhand, two states where it has worked very hard over the last 8 years to build a grassroots cadre and support base. But, as the accompanying charts indicate, the electoral outcomes have not matched the rhetoric. Lets look at Uttarakhand. Though AAP had announced beforehand that it would contest the 2017 elections, there were no “official” AAP candidates as per the Election Commission. Its “candidates won a negligible number of votes. By 2022, when it kept insisting it would form the government, AAP won 3.31% of the vote. The party has an even stronger support base in Goa. In the 2017 assembly elections, it won 6.27% of the vote share. By 2022, the party announced it was confident of forming the government as voters were “fed up” with existing parties like the Congress and BJP. Its vote share in 2022 inched ahead to 6.96%
Quite clearly, given its electoral track record since it would need a near miraculous change in voter preferences for AAP to emerge as a “national alternative” in 2024. Assuming another miracle happens and leaders like K. C. Rao, M. K. Stalin, Mamata Bannerjee, Akhilesh Yadav, Tejasvi Yadav and others back Kejriwal as the PM candidate, he will still have to scale a formidable wall in the form of Narendra Mod. It is worthwhile to revisit the opinion polls conducted by C Voter on the eve of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Voters in Delhi were asked two questions. Whom will you vote for in the coming Delhi assembly elections? Three in every five respondent said Arvind Kejriwal. When asked whom will they vote for the Lok Sabha elections, three in five said Narendra Modi. That was in Delhi where Arvind Kejriwal is incredibly popular. Come to your own conclusions when you look at the rest of India.
Source: Election Commission of India
Source: Election Commission of India
