Friday, 17 May, 2024
By: Sutanu Guru
In 2022, Mulayam was de facto retired and ailing and his son Akhilesh led the SP to a remarkable recovery, capturing a record 32.06% of the vote share.
Will the formidable social and electoral coalition that he built and nurtured since 1990 remain with the Samajwadi Party that he had launched in 1992-sixty three days before the Babri Masjid was demolished? Can his son Akhilesh Yadav ever become chief minister of Uttar Pradesh again?
One of the two titans of Hindi heartland politics who leveraged Mandal with spectacular success for two decades and more has passed away. Mulayam Singh Yadav is gone, leaving behind fellow “Mandal” and “Secular” leader Lalu Prasad Yadav who has also been ailing for some time. Much will be written about the veteran politician who inherited the socialist mantle of Ram Manohar Lohia. Many obituaries will be gushing with praise; some will focus on “negatives” like dynasty politics and patronage to criminal and mafia elements. India Tracker is dedicated to data, so we will focus on the electoral legacy left behind by the late Mulayam Singh Yadav. Will the formidable social and electoral coalition that he built and nurtured since 1990 reman with the Samajwadi Party that he had launched in 1992-sixty three days before the Babri Masjid was demolished? Can his son Akhilesh Yadav ever become chief minister of Uttar Pradesh again? What do the numbers suggest?
As the accompanying chart indicates, the Muslim-Yadav-OBC coalition that Mulayam Yadav built in the early 1990s has been remarkable stable and resilient, at least during assembly elections. The first election that the Samajwadi Party contested was the 1993 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. It managed a vote share of 17.94% and won 109 seats. Don’t forget, the less than 20% vote share is because it fought as an alliance partner of the Bahujan Samajwadi Party and did not contest all seats. After a bitter parting of ways with Mayawati, Mulayam Yadav managed to fetch a 21.80% vote share for his party with 110 seats. The party’s vote share has never dropped below 20% since then. In 2002, the “Netaji” as he was called formed a government again by winning 25.37% of the vote share and 143 seats. Even though Mayawati won a majority for the BSP in 2007, the SP vote share actually increased marginally to 25.43%. In 2012, of course, his party won an absolute majority and got 29.13% of the vote share. In a surprise move, he moved aside and anointed his son Akhilesh Yadav as the chief minister. The party was swamped by the Narendra Modi wave in the 2017, dropping to a 21.82% vote share and just 47 seats. In 2022, Mulayam was de facto retired and ailing and his son Akhilesh led the SP to a remarkable recovery, capturing a record 32.06% of the vote share. Clearly, the social and electoral coalition built by Mulayam has remained strong and stable.
But the bigger question is: will that be enough for the SP to come back to power? As accompanying chart indicates, while the vote share has been stable, the number seats have not reflected the stability. In 2012, SP won 224 seats when it captured a vote share of 29.13%. Its next best performance in the UP assembly was 143 in 2002 when it captured 25.37% of the popular vote. Yet, even though the SP grabbed a record 32.06% of the vote share, the number of seats was a less spectacular 111. For two consecutive elections in 2017 and 2022, the BJP has managed to win more than 40% of the vote share even as the BSP has become a marginal, fringe player. As Akhilesh formally wears the SP crown, which he was de facto controlling by “ousting” his father in a palace coup in 2016-17, the question that must haunt him is: what more needs to be done to become UP chief minster again? The social coalition built by the SP will never cross a 35% vote share mark caste and ethnic equations stand today. The only way for the party built by the Mulayam Singh Yadav to come back to power is for the BJP vote share to drop below 35%.
Will that happen? Analysts and commentators will have to wait more than four years since the next round of assembly elections are due in 2027. In contrast, electoral data from Bihar clearly suggests that the other inheritor Tejasvi Yadav, son of Lalu Prasad Yadav s odds on favourite to become Bihar chief minister in 2025. More of that later.
