Saturday, 12 Oct, 2024
By: Damini Mehta
Source: Getty
According to a recent opinion poll, no single party is expected to win an outright majority in the upcoming elections. The BJP-led coalition is projected to win between 37 and 42 seats, while Congress is close behind with an estimated 33 to 38 seats.
The upcoming Haryana Assembly elections, scheduled for October 1, 2024, mark a significant political moment for the state, coming on the heels of the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) massive setback in the recent Lok Sabha elections. The electoral dynamics in Haryana have been shifting dramatically, setting the stage for what promises to be a highly contested election.
BJP’s Declining Fortunes
The BJP, which has been in power in Haryana for the past decade, faces a challenging electoral landscape. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the party suffered significant losses. Of all the ten Lok Sabha seats in Haryana it held after the 2019 election, the party’s tally came down to five in 2024 polls. Of the 10 Lok Sabha seats, two - Sirsa and Ambala - are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC). In both seats, the BJP candidates were defeated by Congress, with Kumari Selja and Varun Chaudhary of INC winning by 2,68,497 and 49,036 votes, respectively. These defeats indicate a significant erosion of support for the BJP among the SC communities, which could have serious implications for the upcoming state elections. Jat and SC vote combination is said to have helped the Congress increase its tally from zero to five.
Congress Likely to Reemerge?
The Congress party, on the other hand, is eyeing a comeback after being out of power in Haryana for a decade. The party's performance in the Lok Sabha elections offers a glimmer of hope. Out of the 17 reserved assembly seats in the state, Congress led in 11, while the BJP managed to secure just 4. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a relatively new player in Haryana’s politics, also made inroads by leading on two of these reserved seats, further denting the BJP’s prospects.
One of the most telling indicators of the BJP's declining popularity is the drop in its vote share. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured 58% of the vote in Haryana. However, in the 2024 elections, this figure plummeted to 46.06%, a drop of over 11%. In contrast, Congress’s vote share surged from 28.42% in 2019 to 43.73% in 2024, an increase of more than 15%. This swing in voter sentiment reflects growing disillusionment with the BJP and a renewed interest in Congress.
BJP’s Governance Record and the Upcoming Challenge
The BJP has been at the helm in Haryana for two consecutive terms. In 2014, the party won 47 out of the 90 assembly seats, forming a majority government. In 2019, although their seat count dropped to 40, the BJP managed to retain power by forming a coalition with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which brought in an additional 10 seats. In March 2024, the BJP-JJP alliance ended with the resignation of then Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar. With this, the BJP undertook a complete change in cabinet right before the Lok Sabha polls, seen by many as an attempt to shun the anti-incumbency associated with the nearly 10-year rule of Khattar. This clearly did not help the party in the Lok Sabha. It now faces the daunting task of securing a third term in the Assembly amidst a rapidly changing political landscape.
According to a recent opinion poll conducted by Matrize and aired on Times Now, no single party is expected to win an outright majority in the upcoming elections. The BJP-led coalition is projected to win between 37 and 42 seats, while Congress is close behind with an estimated 33 to 38 seats. The JJP, a crucial player in the formation of the last government, is expected to secure between 3 and 8 seats, leaving other parties to capture the remaining 7 to 12 seats. The BJP's projected vote share stands at 35.2%, down from its earlier levels, while Congress is expected to secure 31.6%.
As Haryana heads towards the polls, the stakes are high for both the BJP and Congress. For the BJP, the challenge is not just to retain power but to reverse the trend of declining support, especially among key voter segments. For Congress, the election represents a crucial opportunity to reclaim its position in Haryana after a decade in the political wilderness. With no party likely to secure an outright majority, the possibility of post-election alliances and coalitions looms large, making this one of the most unpredictable elections in recent times.
