Friday, 17 May, 2024
By: Anshul Vipat
In less than three weeks, India will get its first citizen
The race to Rashtrapati Bhavan has begun. In less than three weeks, India will get its first citizen. Both camps are yet to name a candidate for the presidential elections. Last week, the BJP began consultations on evolving a consensus name for the with defense minister and senior party leader Rajnath Singh speaking to a number of key opposition leaders, including NCP chief Sharad Pawar, BSP supremo Mayawati, JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar and BJD supremo Naveen Patanaik.
On the other hand, TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee is on a meeting-spree with opposition leaders in a bid to field a joint candidate.
The Number Game
The Electoral College has 4,809 electors, including 776 Members of Parliament (MPs) and 4,033 Members of Legislative Assemblies (MLAs). The total value of votes will be 10,86,431. To win, a candidate must get at least 5,43,216 votes.
Advantage BJP
Based on the current arithmetic, it seems not a difficult task for the BJP-led NDA. It has 5.26 lakh votes, just 13,000 short of the magic figure. Support from BJD which has 31,000 votes and/or YSRCP which has 43,000 votes will ensure a smooth sailing for the saffron party.
Although its numbers in the upper and lower houses of the parliament has significantly increased, its reduced strength in several state assemblies has changed the equation.
Before the recently concluded assembly elections, NDA was just 0.05 percent below the majority mark. But due to decrease in BJP seats in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the gap has increased to 1.2 percent. The party has also severed ties with its erstwhile saffron allies Shiv Sena and Akali Dal, while its Tamil Nadu ally AIADMK has lost significant share in the recent polls.
Despite the change equation, there’s not much to worry for the saffron party. Support from either the Patanaik-led BJP which has 31,000 votes, or Jagan-led YSRCP (which has 43,000 votes) will ensure a smooth sailing for Modi government.
For opposition, it is a difficult (but not impossible) task to achieve. As of today, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has only 23 percent vote share.
Apart from the numbers, significant changes in the opposition camp in recent times makes the path difficult for the opposition. One, the Aam Aadmi Party, with its victory in Punjab now has Chief Ministers in two States, at par with the Congress. The party has been a strong Congress critic and unlikely to join the opposition camp.
Second, the Trinamool Congress rejuvenated with recent victory is trying to create a dominant space in this election. Already Mamata Banerjee has met Sharad Pawar, whose party NCP is part of Maharashtra’s ruling coalition MVA. She has also met senior Congress leaders, but the grand old party does not seem interested fearing being overshadowed by a former Congresswoman.
Also, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi which is going to face a tough battle with the BJP in its home turf does not want to be seen following the Congress. Its chief K Chandrashekar Rao has his own ambitions.
Looks like a fractured opposition may again end up helping the BJP in an important election unless opposition manages to pull off a miracle.
