Friday, 17 May, 2024
Hundreds of opinions have been given away by so called pundits and experts.
In just about three days or so after senior Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde raised the banner of revolt against his party Boss and Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray, hundreds of opinions have been given away by so called pundits and experts. Those inclined towards the BJP have said this
rebellion is a lesson for Uddhav Thackeray who betrayed the 2019 mandate given by voters of Maharashtra to a combined BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. Those who are more objective say all political parties are opportunistic and the the MLAs who have revolved against their party were feeling that the NCP was threatening their very existence and chances of winning elections again in 2024. Those who don’t like the BJP slammed the party for misusing central investigative agencies and money power to try and engineer a split in the Shiv Sena. Since there is no tax on opinions, they come in a torrent and can often confuse and confound a student of contemporary politics.
The real question is: what is the opinion of the citizens of Maharashtra who will vote again in 2024? In the long run, it is their opinion and their votes that will determine who rules Maharashtra. C-Voter-India Tracker conducted a poll on June 23 in Maharashtra and asked specific questions related to the latest political crisis in the state. The respondents were divided into five broader categories even as they were contacted using random sampling techniques: supporters of Congress, NCP, Shiv Sena, BJP and “other” parties. The responses were predictable in many cases depending on the respondent supports. But there were quite a few reevaluations too as the accompanying graphs would indicate.
For instance, supporters of Congress and the NCP seem to have more confidence in the future prospects of Uddhav Thackeray and Shiv Sena than even supporters of Shiv Sena. Respondents were asked: Do you think the Shiv Sena will split and break up after the revolt by Eknath Shinde? While 46% of Shiv Sena supporters said yes, 44% of NCP and 32% of Congress supporters replied in the affirmative.
This insight became all the more glaring in responses to another question which was: Will the government headed by Uddhav Thackeray collapse after this revolt? Overall, almost 62% of citizens of Maharashtra were convinced the government will collapse. Almost two out of every three Shiv Sena supporter seems convinced this government will collapse, compared to 46% of NCP and 44% of Congress supporters who feel the same way.
Answers to yet another elated question revealed the same pattern: Congress and NCP supporters in the state seem more keen on the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance than Shiv Sena supporters. Citizens of the state were asked: Do you think the Shiv Sena should go back to its original alliance with the BJP? Almost 63% of Shiv Sena supporters shared that sentiment, in contrast to 38% of NCP and 27% of Congress supporters.
Clearly, while the Congress and NCP strategy is to keep the BJP away from power, Shiv Sena supporters seem comfortable with that possibility. More interesting reevaluations came the way of IndiaTracker during the survey. Wait for another story based to data analysis of the responses.
