One-third Indians want govt to normalise ties with Taliban-led Afghanistan

By: Anshul Vipat

While the government is taking cautious steps while dealing with Taliban, the overall public sentiment is in favour of New Delhi opening up with Kabul and engaging in deeper diplomatic relationship with them

The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan last year rattled India’s foreign policy and security establishments over concerns the country would again become a base for militants targeting India. A year later, India still hasn’t extended full diplomatic recognition to the Taliban, but the two sides have begun making cautious overtures toward one another. This includes a high-level delegation of Indian diplomats and reopening of Indian embassy in Kabul.

While the government is taking cautious steps while dealing with Taliban, the overall public sentiment is in favour of New Delhi opening up with Kabul and engaging in deeper diplomatic relationship with them. This sentiment was reflected in the recent survey conducted by the New Delhi-based think tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF).

When asked if India’s interests in Afghanistan would be better safeguarded by improving relations with the Taliban, a plurality of the respondents (37 percent) agreed, while 32 percent disagreed and 23 percent answered ‘Maybe’. A majority of respondents across different educational qualifications, occupations, and income levels were of the view that India can protect its interests in Afghanistan if it engages with the Taliban.

Mistrust continues

While many want India to engage with Afghanistan, majority of the Indians view the country negatively. When asked how much do they trust Kabul, the proportion of respondents who reported distrust is 43 percent. Only 4 percent of the respondents trusted Taliban government, while 12 percent had no opinion on this issue. Compared to the findings of the first  ORF Foreign Policy Survey of 2021, Afghanistan has seen a drop of nearly 9 percentage points. In the case of Afghanistan, the change of regime has contributed to reduction of trust by (-) 8 percent. Although distrust for the country was 4-percent higher (45 percent) among male respondents, the change shows that the proportion of male respondents expressing trust increased by 14 percent.

Indians although gave a strong nod to India’s Afghanistan policy. 68 percent of the respondents said they support India’s diplomatic efforts in Afghanistan following the US’s withdrawal in August 2021. Only 5 percent of respondents were strongly opposed to India’s Afghanistan policy

Should India normalise its relations with Afghanistan?

In early June 2022, a team led by JP Singh, the Joint Secretary heading the Pakistan–Afghanistan–Iran desk at the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, visited Kabul and met with senior Taliban ministers. While India made it clear that none of this implied recognition of the Taliban government, the Taliban played up the political significance of the visit. The meeting, one of the first high-level delegation since the Taliban takeover in 2021 assumed huge political and diplomatic significance. It gave rise to speculation that India may start engaging with Taliban.

According to experts, India has many reasons to foster closer relations with Afghanistan. Afghanistan is important to India’s continental economic aspirations, including closer ties with Central Asia and Iran. These goals are currently hampered by Pakistan’s blockade of Indian access to the region. India's bid to promote an inclusive government in Kabul will deny the space to Pakistan-backed militant groups. India has also been the region’s largest provider of development assistance to Afghanistan since 2001, having invested US$3 billion in infrastructure projects spanning schools, roads, dams and hospital — all of which increase their leverage over the Taliban. These projects had to be stopped in 2021 due to Taliban takeover.