Not 400+ but a comfortable majority for BJP & allies: CVoter Post Poll

By: Damini Mehta

Exit poll survey conducted by CVoter-ABP covering all 543 Lok Sabha constituencies across the country gives a clear indication of the return of the BJP to power at the center. However, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will fall short of its rallying cry of 400 plus seats and is slated to secure anywhere between 353 to 383 seats.

On 4th June 2024, as the results for the 2024 Lok Sabha election start coming in, the political dynamics of India will enter a new phase. The last ten years have seen the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rule at the center with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the helm. The Modi government’s term has not gone criticized with the opposition attacking the government on issues such as the demonetisation in November 2016 to the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-2020. The party has also faced criticism from across political circles and otherwise on its misuse of central agencies, undue influence over bodies such as the Election Commission of India (ECI) and even the Supreme Court of India (SC) on some occasions. In the backdrop of this, the elections to the Lok Sabha witnessed opposition parties from across the country coming together to challenge the BJP and its allies by forming the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance or INDIA grouping. The grouping is led by the Congress party and comprises other partners such as the Trinamool Congress, Aam Aadmi Party, Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Shiv Sena (UBT), and DMK amongst other participants. 

Exit poll survey conducted by CVoter-ABP covering all 543 Lok Sabha constituencies across the country gives a clear indication of the return of the BJP to power at the center. However, the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will fall short of its rallying cry of 400 plus seats and is slated to secure anywhere between 353 to 383 seats. In 2019, the BJP tallied 303 seats on its own with the NDA stopping at 353. The post poll results indicate that the party will clearly be placed to form a majority government but might not aim much higher than its 2019 victory mark. The seat share is marked by a marginal increase of 0.2% in its vote share from 45.1% in 2019 to 45.3% this time. 

According to the findings of the CVoter-ABP post-poll survey, the INDIA grouping will increase its vote share from 36.6% in 2019 to 39.9%. This happens at the cost of the ‘Others’ who witness a decline in vote share from 18.3% to 14.7%. The alliance is expected to scurry up a tally of anywhere between 152 to 182 seats. The projects indicate a jump of around 20-25 seats in the INC’s tally up from 52 in 2019. While the INDIA grouping’s attack on the BJP in various forms and spearheaded by the Congress saw resonance across the country, the BJP’s hold on the narrative and the ability to translate crowds into votes by polarizing the electorate on issues such as the Ram Mandir presumably remains intact. 

The CVoter ABP post-poll survey was conducted on polling day and after polling day among 18+ adults across the country. The data is weighted according to the demographic profile of the states with a Margin of Error of +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level and a vote share projection with 95% Confidence interval. The counting will begin at 8 am on 4th June 2024 to decide the fate of more than 8000 candidates in the fray across the country and the results will be declared on the same day. Along with the Lok Sabha, results to the Assembly Elections to Andhra Pradesh and Odisha will also be released on 4th June.