National Conference ends its association with Gupkar alliance: Can Omar Abdullah revive his party?

By: Yash Gupte

The People’s Alliance for the Gupkar Declaration has virtually come to an end after the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) declared on Wednesday that it will contest elections on all 90 Assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir alone.

The People’s Alliance for the Gupkar Declaration has virtually come to an end after the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) declared on Wednesday that it will contest elections on all 90 Assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir alone. Following the repeal of Article 370 provisions, the PAGD, a coalition of five parties including the National Conference, PDP, Awami National Conference, CPI (M), and CPI, was established with the primary objective of restoring Jammu and Kashmir's special status as it existed on August 4, 2019.

The coalition, which at one point included Sajad Gani Lone's Peoples Conference as a constituent, had run in the District Development Council elections jointly. In the District Development Council polls of 2020, the Gupkar alliance managed to win 110 segments out of the 280. Of the 110 segments secured by the Gupkar Alliance, the JKNC had won on 67 seats. The BJP had won 85 segments. After a meeting chaired by party vice-president Omar Abdullah, the National Conference said the participants of the meeting “expressed dismay over the recent statements, audio jingles and speeches made by some of the constituents of the PAGD targeting JKNC”. Reacting to the development, PDP chief spokesperson Suhail Bukhari said elections were never the aim of his party or the reason for the formation of the PAGD. Apart from the contesting all the 90 seats on its own and without any alliance as of now, the other important matter of discussion was the addition of around 25 lakh new voters to the electoral list.

Though the JKNC has declared that it will be contesting all the 90 seats in the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly on its own, the numbers from the past show a different story for the party as its performance in the J&K assembly elections hadn’t allowed it to form a government in the state. However, JKNC had tried to enter into an alliance with the BJP and PDP as well but the equations were not in the party’s favor and eventually BJP and PDP entered into an alliance and formed the coalition which witnessed many points of friction. The coalition government collapsed on 19^th June 2018 when the BJP pulled out its support and following this, the governor’s rule was imposed in the state. Now that the delimitation exercise has been completed, the elections are estimated to take place at the end of the year. The polls this year are going to be a crucial one for each and every party in the UT as J&K is going to witness elections for the first time after the abrogation of Article 370 which provided a special constitutional status to the erstwhile state. 

The chart below shows the electoral performance of JKNC along with other political parties in the J&K Assembly elections of 2008 and 2014.

Source: Election Commission of India

The JKNC had formed the government with Indian National Congress (INC) in 2008 as it had won the highest (28) number of seats. Its coalition partner, Congress managed to win 17 seats while the PDP emerged victorious on 21 seats and the BJP on 11 seats. Though the JKNC-INC government completed its full term, the congress broke the alliance with national conference and decided to contest the 2014 J&K assembly election on its own. But this proved disastrous for both the parties (JKNC and INC) as their vote share and number of seats fell drastically in the 2014 elections.  The PDP then led by Mufti Mohammad Saeed emerged victorious as it managed to win on 28 seats. JKNC faced a defeat, managing to win only 15 seats. The then-CM Omar Abdullah himself lost his assembly seat from Ganderbal. This was a major setback for the national conference. Therefore, only the upcoming elections tend to decide the fate of Omar Abdullah and his party in Jammu and Kashmir. Also, though not up to a much extent but hardliners like Hurriyat Chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq tend to influence the elections in the Kashmir valley. With the exit of JKNC from the Gupkar alliance, the UT may witness new pre-poll alliances and coalitions.