In Haryana, Khattar out Saini in, BJP repeats Gujarat and Uttarakhand Gameplay?

By: Damini Mehta

Change of leadership helped the BJP retain power in both Gujarat and Uttarakhand but its seat tally reduced in two of the three elections mentioned above. Clearly, discarding the incumbent leadership has helped the party deal with anti-incumbency.

In a sudden change of events, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Haryana replaced the incumbent Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with state party President Nayab Singh Saini. The development comes just one day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi praised Khattar at the inauguration ceremony of the Dwarka Expressway, which connects Haryana with Delhi, as an able and visionary leader. The BJP is known to throw gauntlets that shock party insiders and opposition alike and this is not the first time the party has changed state leadership with less than a year to go for the Assembly elections. 

Rupani helps BJP retain Gujarat

Prior to Haryana, the BJP made a similar move in Gujarat when it replaced incumbent Chief Minister Anandiben Patel just a few months before the 2017 Assembly polls. Patel’s first resignation was rejected by the central BJP leadership but following her second resignation in August 2017 and reports of her losing grip over politics of the state, she was removed as the CM just five months before the 2017 elections. Vijay Rupani was brought in as a replacement for Patel and handed over the task of winning the 2017 elections. Patel’s handling of the Patidar reservation and resentment within the party and cabinet with her were the reasons behind this change. Under Rupani’s leadership, the party went on to win 99 of the state’s 182 seats, a decline of 16 compared to the previous election but managed to increase its vote share by 1.15%.

Source: Getty | Former Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar resigned from the position just a few months before Assembly Polls.

Three CMs in a Year: Uttarakhand

In Uttarakhand too, the BJP played a similar game when it removed incumbent CM Trivendra Singh Rawat after a term that stretched for nearly 4 years. Rawat faced strong opposition and dislike  among the MLAs and party workers, was considered unresponsive to their concerns and unwilling to address them. Setting aside the opposition of party MLAs, three other factors played a major role in his removal. The Char Dham Devasthanam Management Bill, that sidelined the management committees of local temples, setting up of the Gairsain Commissionerate, which broke BJP’s Garhwal stronghold and a corruption case were the last straws in Rawat’s coffin as CM. 

Tirath Singh Rawat was brought in as a replacement to distance the BJP from Trivendra’s reputation and save the party from his embarrassing decisions. However, the former could not hold the power in the state for long and was shown the door in just four months. This marked the second change in state leadership all in just a year before the February 2022 Assembly polls. Tirath’s resignation was presented as a legal issue due to inability to hold a bypoll within six months which made him ineligible to be the CM. However, his affiliation for courting controversies contributed to his ouster from the state leadership. The fake RT-PCR test scandal during the Kumbh Mela in the State at the peak of the COVID pandemic in 2021, and mismanagement of that issue cost him his seat. 

Pushkar Singh Dhami was brought in as a replacement for Tirath in July 2021. Dhami retained 11 ministers from the previous ministry and appointed three new ministers in the incoming government. The party went to polls in 2022 under Dhami’s leadership retaining power for a second consecutive term but the third CM. The BJP, under Dhami, witnessed a decline of 10 seats from its tally of 57 seats in 2017 in the 70 seat assembly. The party also saw a decline of 2.2% in popular vote but managed to form a government under Dhami’s leadership.

Will Saini's Appointment help BJP Defeat Anti-Incumbency in Haryana?

Change of leadership helped the BJP retain power in both Gujarat and Uttarakhand but its seat tally reduced in two of the three elections mentioned above. Clearly, discarding the incumbent leadership has helped the party deal with anti-incumbency but the question remains if it is replicable across states.

Source: Getty | Incoming Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini is from the OBC community which forms 40% of the population in Haryana and is said to have backed the BJP in the past too.

The change of power in Haryana by the BJP is an attempt to take down many birds with the same stone. On the one hand it is an effort at beating anti-incumbency against the nearly ten year rule of outgoing Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar. On the other hand, it is being viewed as an outreach towards the Other Backward Class (OBC) community in the form of an OBC CM in Saini. OBCs form 40% of the population in the state and the OBC community is known to back BJP across the state and at the national level. OBC support emerged as one of the reasons behind the party’s 2019 Lok Sabha and Assembly victories in the state. Khattar's appointment as a Punjabi chief minister at the cost of a Jat leader went against the dominant Jat caste in the state. 

Political analysts say that the BJP is again playing for 40% OBC population of the state along with Punjabis, Brahmins and a portion of Scheduled Castes (SCs). The BJP’s rise in the state since the 2014 Assembly election is considered a result of the party’s effectiveness in sidelining the dominant Jat population of the state by outreach to the other non-jat communities. The Lok Sabha elections in May 2024 will display the effectiveness of appointing an OBC CM and set the stage for the Assembly Elections in late 2024. Whether this will be as effective as it was in the case of Gujarat twice and once in Uttarakhand will be an interesting development.