How Far Behind Is The Congress From The BJP

How Far Behind Is The Congress From The BJP

Most independent and objective commentators of Indian politics are of the firm opinion that the opposition can defeat the NDA led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections only if the Congress dramatically improves its performance. In 2014, Congress won 44 Lok Sabha seats. That improved to 52 seats in 2019; only because of a windfall of seats in Kerala, Punjab, and Tamil Nadu. Without the three states, the Congress tally could have slipped below 40. In virtually the rest of the country, the party was virtually wiped out and lost all seats where it was in a direct contest with the BJP either as a party or as a part of an anti-BJP alliance. The challenge for the Congress is to somehow devise a strategy a strategy to win a significant number of the seats won mostly by the BJP. According to an analysis by CSDS-Lok Niti, the Congress was a serious contender in about 205 Lok Sabha seats where it garnered more than a 30% vote share. The CSDS study also found out that a big majority of the voters in 28 out of 30 states where assembly elections were held in recent years were concerned and angry with rising prices and inflation. Many similar surveys have also revealed growing anxiety and frustration over lack of employment opportunities. Congress supporters and well wishers hope that this undercurrent of anger over bread and butter issues could be harnessed by the party in the 2024 elections to deal a blow to the BJP and give the opposition a more than even chance to “win” the elections.

 Where can the Congress hope to deal a blow to the BJP? The states where it or its alliance can challenge and humble the BJP are Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand and Karnataka. The BJP had virtually swept the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in these states. The million dollar question is: can the Congress leverage growing resentment and anger over inflation and unemployment to defeat the BJP in these states? If the Congress fails to dramatically improve its performance in these states, even a great victory by regional parties like the TRS, YSR Congress, BJD, TMC and DMK in their own states will fail to unseat the NDA alliance.

As the accompanying chart shows, the challenge for Congress is indeed formidable. Not only did the BJP win handsomely in these states, but it actually garnered more than 50% of the vote share in them. The gap between the vote share of the BJP and the Congress in these states ranged from 10% to 30%. In states like Gujarat and Uttarakhand, the BJP vote share was more than a staggering 60%. In many other states like Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana, the BJP vote share was close to 60%. Even in Karnataka, the BJP vote share was 51%. How will the Congress manage to drastically reduce the massive vote shares of the BJP? It looks like a very tall mountain to climb.