Friday, 17 May, 2024
According to electoral data available with the Election Commission of India, the BJP has both “stolen” and “lost” mandates since 2017.
The Maha Vikas Aghadi government in Maharashtra-an alliance government between the Shiv Sena, Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party- is in actual danger of collapsing. A rebellion led by veteran Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde claims to have the support of more than 37 MLAs. If that claim is true, then anti-defection laws will not apply and Uddhav Thackeray will be compelled to resign as chief minister of the state. Analysts are keenly following rapid developments to assess the situation. Meanwhile, critics of the BJP have reiterated their allegation that the party continues to use “undemocratic” methods including money and the misuse of central investigating agencies to “steal” electoral mandates. What does data in the last five years say about this? According to electoral data available with the Election Commission of India, the BJP has both “stolen” and “lost” mandates since 2017.
Assembly elections were organised in Goa in 2017 where the BJP was the ruling party. Out of a total 40 seats, the BJP won 13 while the Congress won 17 seats. Clearly, that was a mandate against the ruling BJP government and the Congress should have been able to form the government by taking support of just four “independent” MLAs or those from smaller parties. But mysteriously, the BJP managed to cobble up support of enough MLAs to claim they have 21 MLAs supporting it. The late Manohar Parrikar, whose was Union Defence Minister then, was sent back as chief minister.
Objective analysts have no doubt that in this case, the BJP somehow managed to “steal” the mandate. The accompanying graph explains the details. One year later, it “lost” the mandate in Karnataka assembly elections where the Congress was the ruling party. Out of the total 224 seats in the state, the Congress was reduced to 80 seats while the BJP won 104 seats. The majority mark in the state is 113. Logically, the mandate was clearly against the Congress which was then the ruling party. But the Congress promptly forged an alliance with the JD (S) that had fought against both the Congress and the BJP and formed a government with JD (S) leader H. D. Kumaraswamy becoming the chief minister.
In this case, it was the Congress that “stole” the mandate. Of course, in about a year or so, enough Congress and JD(S) “rebels” resigned and forced the chief minister to resign. The BJP formed a government that endures because most of the rebel MLAs won bye elections on a BJP ticket.
Something similar, but more ambiguous happened in the 2018 Madhya Pradesh assembly elections. After three consecutive terms in power, the BJP won 109 seats while the Congress won 114 out of a total of 230 seats. The majority mark in the state is 116. Parties like the BSP and many independents offered support to the Congress and a government was duly formed with senior Congress leader Kamal Nath becoming the chief minister. In this case, one could argue the mandate was against the BJP, though not a decisive one like in Goa and Karnataka. About one and half years after that Jyotiraditya Scindia of the Congress revolted and took away enough MLAs to reduce the Congress government to a minority and Kamal Nath was forced to resign. Shivraj Singh Chauhan was back as the chief minister.
Maharashtra in 2019 was even more mysterious. The BJP and Shiv Sena had a pre poll alliance during the elections. The “mandate” was clearly in favour of this alliance with the BJP winning 106 seats and the Shiv Sena 55 in an assembly where the majority mark is 145. But the Shiv Sena chose to form a post alliance with the Congress and the NCP and was successful in installing Uddhav Thackeray as the chief minister.
With the latest revolt, analysts are wondering: whose “mandate” is it?
