Friday, 17 May, 2024
You do the math and figure out why Prime Minister Modi looks the odds on favourite for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections
Thousands of articles, expert analysis and opinion pieces would be written about the spectacular victory of the NDA candidate Droupadi Murmu in the presidential elections. For the record, she has won more than 64% of the first preference vote. Reliable media outlet in the print, electronic and digital format have confidently alerted that the better than expected performance of President elect Droupadi Murmu is because of the fact that many opposition MPs and MLAs have listened to their “conscience” and cross voted for her. It seems about 17 MPs and 126 MLAs from the opposition ranks cross voted in favour of Smt. Murmu. She becomes the first person from Odisha to be elected President of the country; the first tribal to do so and the second woman after Pratibha Patil to achieve the feat. Anyone following politics in the country is aware that a visibly electric sene of pride and election has swept across the tribal community not just in Odisha from where Smt. Murmu hails, but across the country where tribals are found in large numbers.
But 2024 Lok Sabha elections are far away and why should one president from one community affect electoral outcomes in Lok Sabha elections which has 543 seats? Let look at the numbers first to understand why some people are sceptical. The Lok Sabha has 47 seats reserved for tribals that are otherwise categorised as scheduled tribes. That is not even 10% of the total Lok Sabha seats. As the accompanying graph shows, tribal seats are scattered across many states in small numbers. Of the major states, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha have five seats each reserved for tribals. The numbers drop in other major states. Clearly then, suggesting that the election of a tribal woman a President would have a big impact on the Lok Sabha election sounds outlandish. How can a mere 47 seats determine if the BJP will once again win a majority in the 2024 elections; if it is able to win a majority at all?
Seasoned political analyst would know why. First of all, tribal votes are literally the last bastion of the Congress party. As anecdotal data suggests, the Congress was wiped out in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Odisha. The only seat won was a woman tribal from a tribal constituency. If tribal voters in Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Gujarat, Assam and Rajasthan start shifting towards the BJP, the Congress would be further eroded. Now add 84 seats that are reserved for Dalits or the scheduled castes in the Lok Sabha. In 2017, Narendra Modi did not just stop with the symbolic act of giving India another Dalit President in the form of Ram Nath Kovind. His regime invested massive sums in welfare schemes that targeted Dalits. It reaped the benefits. Besides, even massive numbers of OBCs are now moving towards the BJP. These three communities form more than 60% of India’s voting population. You do the math and figure out why Prime Minister Modi looks the odds on favourite for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
