Friday, 17 May, 2024
By: Devparna Acharya
As 2022 Gujarat elections come closer, let’s take a look at the major reasons why Congress has fallen in terms of vote share and seats in a state. Image source: IANS
While the saffron domination continued in this western state, Congress’ decline and electoral conundrum in the state makes for a good analysis
After almost 30 years of ruling the state, there is hardly denying the fact that BJP is the central pole in Gujarat. Considering the fickleness of the Indian electorate, that says something about the party’s work in the state. Since 1995 assembly elections, BJP has gradually and steadily built its stronghold and base among the OBCs, tribals and Dalits in the state.
While the saffron domination continued in this western state, Congress’ decline and electoral conundrum in the state makes for a good analysis. Gujarat was originally a Congress bastion. The Congress won more seats and received more votes than every other party in every Gujarat assembly election between 1962 and 1985.
As 2022 Gujarat elections come closer, let’s take a look at the major reasons why Congress has fallen in terms of vote share and seats in a state and what are the party’s chances in the upcoming state polls.
From 113 seats in 1962 to 77 in 2017
Since 1995, BJP has ruled Gujarat with exception to 1997-98 elections when Shankersinh Vaghela rebelled to launch his party and form a government with Congress backing. Even in the pre-Modi era, elections proved no room for a third force. In 1998, BJP won 117 seats and the Congress 53, polling 35.2% in the seats it contested. Congress’ vote share over the past few years (posy 1995) has stabilised around 32% on an average, gradually increasing over the next few years bringing it to 41.44% in 2017. BJP’s voteshare in 2017 stood at 49.05%, from 49.12% in 2007. Why then, with a decent vote share, has Congress been flailing behind in the state?
Here's a quick overview of how Congress’ dividend, slowly and gradually, declined in a state which was originally its bastion. (source: Election Commission of India)
Nothing new to offer
In 1985, when the Congress won 149 out of 182 seats under the leadership of the late chief minister Madhavsinh Solanki, it used the KHAM (Kshatriya-Harijan-Adivasi-Muslim) grouping to claim victory. However, in doing so, it isolated the upper castes like the Patels (patidar community). Patidars eventually gravitated towards the BJP, making Gujarat a successful laboratory for its Hindutva politics. With nothing new to offer and only traditional vote banks to rely upon, Congress lost considerable ground post 1985.
After 1985, the party’s electoral dividends showed a sharp decline, which can be attributed to several reasons. For one, the Congress in Gujarat had the impending question looming over them, who is the party for? Over a period of time, the core constituencies of Congress in the state have been fragmented. In the almost 30 years that Congress has been out of power, it has not been able to swing any new voters in its favour. Patidar leader Hardik Patel could have changed this for the party post 2017, but that ship has sailed for now.
BJP, on the other hand, has successfully used the local elections as a ground for experimentation and took the bold step of replacing the entire Vijay Rupani cabinet with Bhupendra Patel as the chief minister. Internal skirmishes and disaffections were contained, the experiments had borne successful fruit. Congress leadership, even on state levels, has not shown any electoral boldness, so far.
Between 1998 and 2017, Congress levelled up its vote share in Gujarat – rose from 32.51% in 1998 to 41.44% in 2017 – but despite improving its vote share tally, reports indicate that Congress’ future is not very bright in the state. Congress’s experiment to keep Patidar votes by bringing in Hardik Patel and OBC votes by bringing in Alpesh Thakor in its fold failed when both Patel and Thakor ditched the party and joined BJP. Moreover, Patel was alienated from the Patidar community when he joined the Congress in 2020. Congress has lost a dozen MLAs to BJP since 2017 and its veteran leader Ahmed Patel to COVID-19 in 2020.
What are 2022 predictions for the Congress?
According to a ABP-CVOTER survey, the incumbent BJP is predicted to maintain its streak for the seventh time since 1995 with an estimated victory over 135 to 143 seats, which would represent a significant gain from its 2017 tally of 99 seats. Congress is slated to get around 26 per cent upper caste Hinu vote share while the debutant Aam Aadmi Party to get 14 per cent vote share in the 2022 Gujarat Assembly elections. 39 per cent Dalit vote share is predicted to side with BJP, coming close to heel with Congress with 38 per cent Dalit vote share.
One should remember though that in 2017 Congress gave quite a scare to the BJP. AAP is in the fray this time, as well.
The BJP is predicted to get 54% Other Backward Class vote share this time. Congress is predicted to get 26% vote share and AAP predicted to get 16% of OBC vote share. As far as the Muslim vote is concerned, BJP is predicted to experience a decline, getting 23 per cent of vote share which may translate to gain for Congress and AAP getting 45 per cent and 30 per cent Muslim vote share respectively. As per the opinion poll 41 per cent tribal voters are predicted to elect BJP. Congress is predicted to garner 37 per cent tribal vote share
