Faltering Fortunes: Why Turncoat Success Rates Are Losing Ground

By: Rishav Khetan

The strike rate of turncoats in Lok Sabha elections has significantly declined over the years, hitting a five-decade low in 2019. Election data shows that the 2019 general elections had only a 14.87% overall success rate for turncoats.

In the intricate and often unpredictable landscape of Indian politics, the phenomenon of turncoat politicians who switched allegiances ahead of elections has become a hallmark of electoral strategy. This pervasive trend has blurred the ideological lines that once demarcated political parties, reducing them to mere stepping stones for personal ambition. Despite laws intended to prevent such defections, these measures have largely failed to achieve their goals. As political loyalty wanes in the face of personal gain, the practice of party-switching continues to reshape the electoral landscape, underscoring the challenges in maintaining ideological purity and stability within India's democratic framework.

In Indian politics, the term "Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram" has become synonymous with politicians who frequently switch parties. This expression traces back to 1967 when Haryana legislator Gaya Lal, who initially won as an independent candidate, changed parties three times within a fortnight. He shifted from the Congress to the United Front, then back to the Congress, and again to the United Front, all within a short span. During one such switch to the Congress, party leader Rao Birendra Singh famously announced, "Gaya Ram was now Aaya Ram."

Despite stringent anti-defection laws, the culture of frequent party-switching has persisted in India. Now, the political landscape has evolved to a point where not just individuals but entire parties are perfecting the art of defection. A contemporary example is Nitish Kumar and his party, JD(U). This year, Kumar has switched alliances for the fourth time in a decade, earning him the nickname "Paltu Kumar."

Over the past decade, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been the primary beneficiary of political defections. Trends indicate that defectors typically gravitate towards the more dominant party. Nearly 25% of the BJP candidates in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are turncoats from other parties who have joined the party after 2014. In Uttar Pradesh, almost a third of BJP's candidates, 23 out of 74 joined the party in the last ten years.

Before the BJP's rise, the Congress party, under Indira Gandhi, had significant influence over defectors, boasting a 90.91% win rate in 1967 and 82.61% in 1971. This dominance weakened post the JP movement, with the success rate falling to 45.83% in 1977. 

The Congress maintained a moderate success rate for defectors during Rajiv Gandhi's era. However, in 1996, the BJP surpassed Congress in turncoat success rate for the first time, achieving 33.33%, while Congress's rate dropped to 15.79%. Under the UPA rule (2004-2014), Congress's turncoat success rate improved slightly to 44.44% in 2004. The emergence of Narendra Modi further boosted BJP's appeal, with their turncoat success rate soaring to 66.67% in 2014.

Notably, the strike rate of turncoats in Lok Sabha elections has significantly declined over the years, hitting a five-decade low in 2019. Election data shows that the 2019 General Election to the Lok Sabha had only a 14.87% overall success rate for turncoats, a drop of over 34 percentage points from the 1967 polls, which had a 48.94% success rate. Specifically, in 2019, only 19 out of 195 turncoat candidates won, whereas in 1967, 23 out of 47 turncoat candidates emerged victorious. During the 1967 General Elections, Congress achieved a 90.91% success rate for turncoats, with 10 out of 11 candidates winning.

The BJP, with its slogan "A Party with a Difference," has increasingly become Congressised as a large share of leaders from the Congress have moved to the BJP since 2014. Notable examples include Himanta Biswa Sharma, who was appointed Chief Minister of Assam, replacing BJP veteran Sarbanand Sonowal. Similarly, in Tripura, Congress-turncoat Manik Saha was made Chief Minister. Nearly all BJP Chief Ministers in the Northeast are defectors, including Prema Khandu of Arunachal Pradesh and N. Biren Singh of Manipur. These turncoats are not only occupying influential government roles but also key positions within the party. For instance, Samrat Choudhary, who began his political career with the RJD and later joined JDU, is now the BJP State President in Bihar.

This trend of prioritizing defectors over homegrown leaders is not unique to the BJP. The Congress party has also placed defectors in lucrative positions. In Maharashtra, the State President Nana Patole has a BJP background, as does Ajay Rai in Uttar Pradesh. Both of the Congress’ incumbent Chief Ministers are not originally from the party. Karnataka's CM Siddaramaiah was with JD(S) from 1999 to 2005 and with Janata Dal from 1988 to 1999. Revanth Reddy, the newly appointed CM of Telangana, was initially affiliated with the ABVP during his student years. In 2007, he was elected as a Member of the Legislative Council (MLC) as an independent candidate and later joined the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). He served as the floor leader of TDP in the Telangana Legislative Assembly before formally joining the Congress party on October 31, 2017.

The rampant trend of politicians switching parties for electoral and economic gains continues unabated, driven by factors such as the lack of internal democracy within political parties, the lure of power and influence, and the increasing role of money and muscle power in politics. To ensure a healthy and strong democratic system, it is essential to introduce amendments to the current defection laws to curb this practice. Strengthening these regulations would help restore ideological integrity and stability, fostering a more principled and trustworthy political landscape in India.