Can Bharat Jodo Yatra yield returns for Congress in Maharashtra?

By: Yash Gupte

The fact that Supriya Sule and Aditya Thackeray showed up for the Bharat Jodo Yatra is yet another indication that it’s more Opposition Jodo than Bharat Jodo

It has been two months since Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, along with his colleagues and thousands of party workers, embarked on ‘Bharat Jodi Yatra’ - a march from Kanyakumari in Tamil Nadu to Srinagar in Jammu & Kashmir.

The event was launched by Congress in an attempt to revive and reinvigorate the party and its lost base among the voters. The 3,570-kilometer-long foot march entered Maharashtra on November 7 after starting in Tamil Nadu on September 7. Bharat Jodo Yatra will reach almost halfway mark once it enters Madhya Pradesh’s Burhanpur district on November 20.

Apart from the Congress, leaders belonging to Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) walked with Rahul in Maharashtra’s Nanded and Hingoli. Former minister Aditya Thackeray joined the Bharat Jodo Yatra in Hingoli on Friday. Other prominent leaders to join the foot march were Supriya Sule, Jayant Patil and Jitendra Awhad. Apart from support of important national leaders, the yatra has been able to draw huge crowds in Maharashtra.

But one question which arises is that, will this huge crowd vote for the grand old party and will congress be able to revive itself in Maharashtra. As data suggests, Congress’ popularity in Maharashtra has been on a decline since 2014 – after 15 years of being in power.

Congress had won the highest number of seats (222) in the 1972 Maharashtra Legislative Assembly election. The party has not been able to cross the 100-way mark since the 1995 elections.

Source: Election Commission of India

Congress grabbed 69 seats in the 2004 Assembly election and formed a coalition government in Maharashtra along with the NCP. Under the leadership of Congress’ Vilasrao Deshmukh, the government successfully completed its full term. There was an improvement in the performance of the grand old party in the 2009 Assembly elections as it emerged victorious winning 82 seats in spite of the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack for which the party was heavily criticised. Chief minister Ashok Chavan, however, couldn’t continue for long due to the allegations of corruption in the Adarsh Housing Society Scam. As a result, Prithviraj Chavan became the chief minister of Maharashtra.

These were turbulent years for Congress and its allied parties in the state. With the Grand Old Party facing charges of corruption and Narendra Modi gaining mass popularity, the party lost power in 2014 assembly election. Congress won only 42 seats (lowest in history) while the BJP emerged victorious on 122 seats and formed the government with Shiv Sena.

Congress could only add 2 seats to its tally in the 2019 Assembly election in Maharashtra. The party’s vote share also dropped from 21.01 percent in 2009 to 15.87 percent in 2019. Most of the popular Congress leaders lost their seats in 2014 and 2019 assembly elections. The then senior Congress leader Narayan Rane had lost the election from Kudal constituency in 2014. Harshavardhan Patil, who had contested the 2014 assembly election on a Congress ticket was defeated from Indapur by NCP’s Dattatray Bharane.

Source: Election Commission of India

BJP emerged as the single largest party in the 2019 Maharashtra Legislative Assembly election. It had formed a pre-poll alliance with the Shiv Sena which emerged victorious on 56 seats. Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray had remarked that his party had entered into an alliance with the BJP over a 50:50 power sharing formula which meant that BJP and Shiv Sena would have shared the post of CM for two-and-half years each. But this formula failed and despite of a clear majority for BJP- Sena, the parties didn’t form the government.

After a month of negotiations, a new government was formed in Maharashtra under the banner of Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress joined hands to form a tripartite alliance and establish the government. Congress with 44 seats, NCP with 54 and Shiv Sena with 56 seats formed the government. With 154 seats and a majority, Uddhav Thackeray became the CM of Maharashtra. But the tripartite government couldn’t last for long because of a rebellion orchestrated by the Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde who became the next chief minister by joining hands with the BJP. With this, the seat tally of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena has been reduced to 17.

The 2019 Maharashtra Assembly election established Shiv Sena and NCP as important coalition partners of the Congress party. Last time Congress formed a government on its own in the state was in 1985 with 186 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 145. Congress has not been able to form a government on its own since then. It has been heavily dependent on its coalition partners to be in power in Maharashtra.

The fact that Supriya Sule and Aditya Thackeray showed up for the Bharat Jodo Yatra is yet another indication that it’s more Opposition Jodo than Bharat Jodo. Congress’ dependence on the three parties- NCP, Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) – is clear from the Yatra attendance.

As data shows, none of the Congress allies have enough numbers to form a government on its own and therefore the parties under the MVA are dependent on each other than ever.

During the Yatra, Rahul has been heavily criticising the BJP government in Maharashtra and Centre over various issues, including the current government allegedly losing a few major investment and infrastructure projects to other states. This issue was also raised by Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Aditya Thackeray. Rahul and Aditya have teamed up as the state's new government prepares for its first election following the Shiv Sena split. Aditya's Hingoli appearance could indicate that Sena (UBT) and Congress could jointly run upcoming Mumbai civic body elections (BMC). The Bharat Jodo Yatra will prove beneficial to the party only if it is able to convert it to votes. The upcoming BMC elections will prove to be a litmus test for the party. While current trends suggests that the party may not be able to muster enough seats, it will be interesting to watch whether the Bharat Jodo Yatra will influence the voters and bring a change in its electoral coffers.