BJP's Strategic Positioning in the 2024 Lok Sabha Vis a Vis INDIA Alliance

By: Damini Mehta

Of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in MP, the BJP currently holds 28 and its recent performance in the Assembly is likely to give it an edge in the Lok Sabha as well. The party secured 48.55% of the popular vote compared to 41% in 2018.

As the political landscape in India continues to evolve, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finds itself at the center of attention in the lead-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party, known for its assertive and nationalistic agenda, is facing a dynamic scenario marked by shifting alliances and regional dynamics. One significant development is the emergence of the INDIA alliance, a coalition that aims to challenge the BJP's dominance. In this context, it's essential to analyze the BJP's current position, taking into account the recent assembly election results in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Telangana.

Assembly Victories and Losses: Impact on 2024

The three Hindi heartland states have historically been crucial battlegrounds for political parties, often serving as bellwethers for the national mood. The BJP faced a setback in the assembly elections held in these states in 2018, losing power to the Congress party in both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, while Rajasthan witnessed a closely contested battle.

This time, all three states saw a comeback of the BJP, a victory crucial with the 2024 Lok Sabha elections just a few months away. While Madhya Pradesh saw the BJP win in spite of anti-incumbency associated with a near 20 years of rule, in Rajasthan, the Congress suffered defeat in spite of Ashok Gehlot’s welfare schemes and BJP’s leaderless campaign. 

Of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in MP, the BJP currently holds 28 and its recent performance in the Assembly is likely to give it an edge in the Lok Sabha as well. The party secured 48.55% of the popular vote compared to 41% in 2018. The congress currently holds the one Lok Sabha seat from MP. Rajasthan sends 25 MPs to the Lok Sabha of which 24 come from the BJP and one from another party. The saffron party’s performance in the Assembly ensures that it is well placed to retain a large number of MPs from the state. 

Chhattisgarh Assembly saw the outgoing Congress government give way to the BJP in an election result that was shocking for all whereas in Telangana, the result gave the Congress some wind in its flight in the southern region, adding to its Karnataka victory in early 2023. Of the 11 Lok Sabha MPs from Chhattisgarh, 9 are from BJP and 2 from INC. The BJP fought the recently concluded Assembly Elections as a referendum on Modi’s leadership and his welfare benefit schemes, something which is likely to resonate in the Lok Sabha as well. Given its defeat in the Assembly, the INC, which sends just 2 MPs from here, might not be able to convert it into Lok Sabha seats in 2024 in spite of its 42% popular vote in the Assembly. The results also put the party in a precarious position to negotiate for a better seat agreement with the INDIA Alliance partners. In 2019, BJP’s ability to win 4 of Telangana’s 17 Lok Sabha seats was considered a major feat given its weak positioning in the south. In 2019, the BJP managed a 23% popular vote which dropped to less than 14% in the recently concluded assembly elections. Congress, which won 3 seats in the Lok Sabha managed a popular vote of 17%. The party’s comeback in the state in the assembly has given it a 39% popular might and will likely help it translate into more seats in the Lok Sabha as well. 

The results are a turning point and strengthen the BJP’s hold in the Hindi heartland but mark its complete oust in the south. For the Congress, its defeat in the three northern states is a bad sign and weakens its position in the INDIA Alliance. 

Prep for Lok Sabha 2024:

The BJP has already gone into a huddle for the upcoming Lok Sabha election with a target of 303 plus seats. The party is playing up the consecration of the Ram Mandir temple to reach out to residents across the country, the construction of which was a central poll promise since the 1992 mobilization. With the focus of the campaign on PM Modi’s leadership and welfare benefits, the Prime Minister has thrown in a gauntlet with GYAN or Gareeb (Poor), Yuva (Youth), Annadata (Farmer) and Narishakti (women empowerment) as central to its 'Viksit Bharat 2047' agenda to transform India into a developed country by the 100th year of its independence.

The BJP's ability to adapt its strategies became evident after its early 2023 defeat in Karnataka as it regained its hold in the North with three victories in late 2023. The party's agility in forming partnerships with local and regional powers and aligning its national agenda and PM’s leadership with local sentiments showcase its resilience and strategic acumen.

In Uttar Pradesh, which sends the largest share of MP’s to the Lok Sabha at 80, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's rising clout and the state’s polarizing political dynamics give the saffron party an edge over other players. The party won 62 of the 80 seats, its alliance partner Apna Dal (S) secured 2 more for the NDA. BSP, which lost steam in the Assembly managed 10 seats whereas SP and Congress were reduced to 5 and just 1. The state will throw up interesting challenges for the INDIA alliance as both SP and Congress will fight to gain more seats. While the BSP is not a part of the INDIA alliance, its entry will create more trouble for the opposition alliance. 

West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh send 42 and 25 MPs to the Lok Sabha respectively and both states have the presence of dominant regional players. In West Bengal, the BJP made a huge entry in 2019 Lok Sabha elections with 18 MPs, up from just 2. Mamata Bannerjee led Trinamool Congress (TMC)’s tally came down from 34 to 22, a large share of its loss in seats going to the BJP. The Congress faced a near rout in the state with just 2 seats. Again, the state will top the list of troubles for the INDIA alliance when it comes to seat sharing between TMC and Congress. 

In Andhra Pradesh, Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP is in a direct contest with Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP. YSRCP won 22 of the 25 MP seats leaving 3 to the TDP and completely ousting Congress from the state. Over the years, neither the BJP nor the Congress have been present in the state in any significant manner. In 2019, both parties contested on all 25 seats but won zero with a combined vote share of less than 3%, a result which might repeat itself in 2024. 

The INDIA Alliance Challenge:

As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections approach, the BJP faces a formidable challenge from the INDIA alliance, a coalition of opposition parties seeking to create a united front against the ruling party. Led by leaders like Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, Sharad Pawar, and Mamata Banerjee, the alliance aims to present a cohesive alternative to the BJP.

While the BJP's dominance remains significant at the national level, the INDIA alliance poses a potential threat by consolidating anti-BJP votes and leveraging regional strengths. The BJP, in response, is focusing on maintaining its pan-India appeal while also addressing regional concerns through strategic alliances and candidate selections. The Congress’ losses in the northern assemblies question its ability to lead the INDIA alliance and will impact seat sharing in an already strained partnership with competing agendas and ideologies. In the south, local players have always played prominence over national parties and the Congress has been in direct opposition to regional parties in several of these states making the alliance all the more challenging. 

The BJP's position in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is marked by a nuanced understanding of the evolving political dynamics. As it navigates the challenges posed by the INDIA alliance, the BJP's ability to strike a balance between its nationalistic agenda and regional sensibilities will likely determine its electoral fortunes in the upcoming battle for the Lok Sabha. The unfolding political scenario promises an engaging and closely contested battle, with the BJP at the epicenter of India's democratic narrative.