BJP Set To Retain Himachal

By: Sutanu Guru

The BJP vote share is projected to fall from 48.8% in 2017 to 44.9% in these elections. Even the Congress is projected to lose some vote share, falling from 41.7% to 41.7%.

In a departure from electoral history, the incumbent ruling party BJP looks all set to remain in power in Himachal Pradesh for another five years. This was revealed by an exclusive C Voter Exit Poll conducted for ABP News. According to the Exit poll numbers, the BJP looks likely to win between 33 to 41 seats in the 68 seat assembly where the majority mark is 35. In contrast, the main opposition party Congress appears likely to win between 24 to 32 seats. If the numbers hold good, this will be the first time in decades that an incumbent regime has not been voted out after serving five years during an assembly election. Many political analysts were of the opinion that Himachal could be a low hanging fruit for the Congress due to strong anti-incumbency sentiments. But in a replay of what happened in the 2022 assembly elections in Uttarakhand where the Congress failed to snatch the state away from the BJP despite the immense popularity of the Congress leader Harish Rawat, Himachal could prove to be a so near, yet so far phenomenon for the Congress.

For a while, the Aam Aadmi Party appeared to mount a spirited challenge in the state and position itself as the real alternative to both the BJP and the Congress. But it diverted all its attention towards Gujarat. Then C Voter exit poll shows the effect of that. AAP is projected to win no seats and garner a vote share of barely 2.1 percent. The BJP vote share is projected to fall from 48.8 percent in 2017 to 44.9 percent in these elections. Even the Congress is projected to lose some vote share, falling from 41.7 percen to 41.7 percent. If the exit poll numbers hold good when actual results are declared on December 8, the outcome will be yet another blow to the Congress which seems unable to win assembly elections after 2019.