BJP Gets Three of Four, Congress One: 2023 Assembly Elections

By: Damini Mehta

The BJP, under Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s leadership managed to sweep the elections, fighting anti-incumbency, in what is seen to be a mandate in favor of Chauhan and Ladli Behna scheme and Modi’s welfare benefits focused campaign.

While the Indian National Congress (INC)’s victory in the Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections in early 2023 helped put some wind back in the party's wings, the recently concluded Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh were expected to add another feather in its cap that appeared to be on a revival after organizational changes, Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and the assembly victories in early 2023. However, election results to the four states that were declared on 3rd December 2023 appear to have changed the direction of the wind. Barring Telangana, the grand old party was trumped by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the other three states.

In Madhya Pradesh, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has been leading the government for the last 20 years barring a short Congress stint after the 2018 elections. High anti-incumbency against the four term rule of the BJP was expected to help the Kamal Nath-lead INC back to power. However, Congress faced a heavy defeat as it managed to win 66 seats, a drop of 48 since 2018. The BJP, under Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s leadership managed to sweep the elections, fighting anti-incumbency, in what is seen to be a mandate in favor of Chauhan and Ladli Behna scheme and Modi’s welfare benefits focused campaign. The party increased its tally by 54 seats, securing a victory of more than two-thirds or 163 seats in the 230 seat assembly. According to analysts, the BJP also benefited from Jyotiraditya Sindhiya’s defection to the party in early 2020. It was also the reason why it was able to push out the then Kamal Nath led Congress government and bring in Shivraj Singh Chouhan back to power.

In Chattisgarh, prior to the elections, the Congress party government had to douse party infighting by making T. S. Singh Deo, the Deputy Chief Minister and thereby save Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel led Congress government. This time, the party was voted out of power as BJP secured another victory in three of the four states that declared results. In the 90 seat assembly, the BJP won a comfortable victory with 54 seats, a gain of 39 since its last mandate. The outgoing Congress government stopped at 35, a drop of nearly half since 2018 when it won 68 seats out of 90.

In Rajasthan, which has had a strong anti-incumbency and is known to change parties every election term, the Congress government was dealing with infighting just as in Chhattisgarh. The public revolt by Sachin Pilot and his associates against Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot supposedly weakened the party, which faced a humiliating defeat in the recently concluded elections. Interestingly, this is in spite of the BJP’s inability to put its own house in order. The BJP did not field a clear chief ministerial candidate, Vasundhara Raje, the chief minister in the last BJP government was kept on the sidelines. Modi and Amit Shah were at the forefront of campaigning in the state. The election was a clear mandate against the outgoing Ashok Gehlot government. Results indicated how the BJP was able to impress a large section of the population with its promises of subsidized cylinders and other welfare benefits. Of the 199 seats in the assembly, the BJP won more than 50% or 115. The Congress tally fell by 30 seats to 69.

Telangana, the third state that saw election results declared on the 3rd December, ousted the incumbent Bhartiya Rashtra Samiti (BRS) government. The state saw three major players, the BRS formerly (TRS), Congress, and the BJP with a minor player in AIMIM. While the BJP managed to increase its tally by 7 seats from just one in the previous assembly, the real victory was cornered by Congress that won the state with 64 seats, a jump of 45 since 2018. Outgoing Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao faced a massive defeat as the seat tally fell by 49 seats to just 39 in the new assembly. Rao is said to have shifted focus to national politics. However, the recently concluded elections have undermined the party and the leader’s position not only in the state but across the state. Mizoram, which also went to polls along with the four states saw results declared on the 4th when regional party Zoram People’s Movement emerged as the single largest party in the assembly with 27 out of 40 seats followed by Mizo National Front lost 17 seats to close at 10 in the incoming assembly.

What is interesting about the recently concluded elections is that they were viewed as a semi-final before the key battle for the Lok Sabha next year. The INDIA alliance is a group of opposition parties that have come together to challenge the BJP but is already facing several roadblocks, especially when it comes to seat sharing. The Congress, the largest player in the alliance, finds itself at a disadvantage as it no longer has the leverage it would have had it been able to win the three elections. The party will face heavy challenges in terms of seat sharing and conversion of votes on the ground come 2024 Lok Sabha elections it seeks to adjust with other regional parties in both north and south India. The BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is looking to win a third term consecutively and has already launched its campaign with the Prime Minister's speech after its three state election victories. The BJP appears to be setting a narrative to contest 2024 Lok Sabha elections on Modi’s welfare benefits.

While the issues and the narratives that will be important in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be significantly different from the issues raised in the recently concluded assembly elections. The ongoing campaigning and narrative building has definitely set the stage for what the fight for Parliament might look like next year. This is also important given the shift in focus towards the welfare benefits and appeasement politics that was evident in the last few assembly elections and will likely be the center stage in the upcoming elections as well.