Tuesday, 14 May, 2024
By: Rishav Khetan
The BJP's ascendancy in Karnataka's political landscape has been a gradual and significant journey. Starting with just four seats in the 1989 Assembly elections, the party made substantial gains over the years, clinching 44 seats in the 1999 Assembly election and surging to 79 seats in the 2004 Assembly elections.
Karnataka is often referred to as the "Southern Gateway" for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Karnataka’s political dynamics have far-reaching implications; the unique position it holds as the only non-Hindi-speaking southern state where the BJP has succeeded in forming a government underscores its significance in the larger scheme of Indian politics. The BJP lost its only southern fortress in the 2023 Assembly elections to the Indian National Congress (Congress). Though Karnataka has changed the state government every five years, the state has given BJP the majority of Lok Sabha seats in every general election since 2004, and the question is whether the party can score big in the 2024 general election before the rejuvenated Congress.
Caste plays a crucial role in Karnataka politics. The Lingayat community is considered to be the biggest vote bank of the BJP, and it is no wonder why the attempts by the central leadership of the BJP to side-line Lingayat strongman B.S Yeddyurappa both in 2013 and 2023 ended up denting the party. Yeddyurappa's significance in the BJP is such that his departure in 2013 resulted in the BJP receiving only 19.9% of the vote share, a reduction of over 13.9% from the 2008 Assembly elections, where the party received 33.86% of the vote share. Even in the 2023 Assembly election, the BJP faced a humiliating defeat after attempts to sideline its tallest leader in the state. On the other hand, the Vokkalinga, the second-largest community after Lingayat, has often found its voters split between the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) (JDS). But in the 2023 Assembly election, Vokkalingas overwhelmingly voted for Congress backing D.K. Shivakumar, who belonged to the same caste. The dominance of these two communities can be ascertained from the fact that nearly 45% of the candidates picked by the Congress, BJP, and JD(S) for the 2023 Assembly election were either from the Vokkaliga or Lingayat community. In a power struggle between the two dominant castes, a new alternative called "Ahinda" - an alliance between religious minorities, backward castes, and Dalits emerged. Initially cultivated by former chief minister Devraj Urs, it is presently being carried forward by Congress Chief Minister Siddaramaiah.
The BJP's ascendancy in Karnataka's political landscape has been a gradual and significant journey. Starting with just four seats in the 1989 Assembly elections, the party made substantial gains over the years, clinching 44 seats in the 1999 Assembly election and surging to 79 seats in the 2004 Assembly elections. The year 2008 witnessed a historic moment as the BJP, for the first time, formed its government in Karnataka, winning 110 seats. Falling just three seats short of a majority, the party forged an alliance with six independent candidates, with BS Yeddyurappa becoming the Chief Minister. In the 2023 Assembly elections, the BJP government, led by BS Bommai, suffered defeat, and the Congress secured a sweeping victory amid a strong anti-incumbency wave fueled by corruption allegations against the Bommai administration. The Indian National Congress won the election in a landslide by getting 135 seats, making it their biggest win by seats and vote share in Karnataka since the 1989 elections, as the BJP was reduced to just 66 seats. Though the state has chosen to change the government in every subsequent election since 2004, Karnataka has consistently favored the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP won 18 seats in 2004, followed by 19 in 2009, and 17 in 2014, out of a total of 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state. In the 2019 elections, the BJP reached the highest point in Karnataka, winning a remarkable 25 seats and crossing the 50% vote share mark for the first time.
The key factor behind the BJP’s defeat in 2023 was the division of the Lingayat community votes, which is the party's primary voter base. In 2023, 37 Lingayat leaders won on the Congress ticket, in comparison to 13 in the 2018 polls, while only 15 secured victory on the BJP symbol, though it fielded 69 Lingayat candidates in the elections. Looking ahead to the 2024 General elections, the BJP has revisited its strategy, restructuring its state unit to balance caste equations and regain the traditional Lingayat vote bank. In an effort to regain its traditional voters, the party appointed Lingayat leader Yeddyurappa’s son, BY Vijayendra, as the Party state unit President. Additionally, R Ashoka, a prominent Vokkalinga leader, was named the Leader of the opposition in the State legislative assembly. Kota Srinivas Poojary, a seasoned leader from the Other Backward Classes (OBC), was appointed as Leader of the opposition in the State legislative council. As part of further course correction, Lingayat leader Jagdish Shettar, the former chief minister, was re-inducted into the party.
With a new and relatively young team of Karnataka BJP in place and a formidable ally in JDS, the party seems better placed than the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) ahead of the General elections in Karnataka in 2024. The problem, however, lies with the party to convince the old and incumbent leaders to make way for new candidates in Lok Sabha elections to dodge anti-incumbency against the sitting Member of Parliament.
