Assembly By-Polls Mirror Emergence of India Alliance During LS Polls

By: Vaishali S.

BJP's vote share dropped significantly from an average of 50 percent in the Lok Sabha elections to below 35 percent in the recent by-polls, while Congress saw an increase in the vote share in five out of seven seats it contested.

Following the recently concluded 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Assembly by-polls for 13 seats have delivered another significant blow to the ruling NDA, while providing further cause for celebration for the INDIA bloc. The NDA, which had already seen its numbers dwindle to 293 seats from over 350 in 2019, faced an additional setback in these by-polls. It managed to secure only two of the contested seats, whereas the INDIA bloc emerged victorious in 10 of the 13 constituencies. An important factor in these results is not just the NDA's loss of seats, but also a notable decline in their vote share percentage as compared to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with the exception of the two seats where  they managed to increase their vote share.

The two seats where BJP’s vote share increased are Vikravandi in Tamil Nadu and Manglaur in Uttarakhand. In states like Tamil Nadu, it is generally observed that by-elections favor the ruling party. In the case of Manglaur, which is a Muslim-dominated seat and has traditionally been challenging for the BJP, the increase in vote share indicates some positive momentum for the party. Apart from these two seats, resistance to the BJP among voters is evident, as their vote share has mostly declined. Even in the two seats that the BJP managed to win, Hamirpur in Himachal Pradesh and Amarwara in Madhya Pradesh, the vote share has declined compared to the  Lok Sabha polls. There was a 12.5% decline in vote share in Hamirpur and a 3.1% decline in Amarwara.

One of the surprises in these by-elections is the way Himachal Pradesh has voted. Just a couple of months ago, the ruling Congress was on the verge of collapse due to defections by MLAs. However, they comfortably managed to win two out of three seats in the state, thereby restoring their strength to 40 MLAs in the Assembly. Another discussed seat was Badrinath, like Ayodhya it has been considered a stronghold of the BJP due to its religious significance. However, what transpired in Ayodhya during the Lok Sabha elections was repeated in Badrinath during the by-election, with the BJP losing the seat. In Badrinath, the sitting MLA from Congress joined the BJP during the Lok Sabha elections and contested the by-election on a BJP ticket. His defection to the BJP backfired, resulting in a loss by around 5,000 votes. Consequently, the seat was won by the Congress. However, the results of West Bengal were not a surprise and the TMC which is already strong in the State managed to win all four seats. In West Bengal too, the position of BJP is seen has further declining continuing the trend of Lok Sabha elections as there vote share (%) has further reduced.

Now, if we compare the vote share percentage of the winning candidate in these 13 Assembly Constituencies with the previous elections, we can notice another series of fascinating trends in the graph below.

In all the seats that went to the polls, the common trend was an increase in the vote share percentage of the winning candidate, except for one seat: Amarwara in Madhya Pradesh, where the vote share percentage of the winning candidate declined in a particularly close fight. An interesting fact is that the winning candidate was also a Congress defector who enjoyed significant local support. This proved to be a decisive factor, as the BJP managed to win this seat for the first time in 16 years.

The positive trend in vote share percentage for the opposition is a strong indication that the BJP needs to reevaluate its election strategies. The ongoing decline in both vote share and the number of seats is a clear signal that the BJP's current approach is not resonating with voters. This shift reflects changing power dynamics in the country, driven by various factors. As the political landscape evolves, it will be crucial for the BJP to address these challenges and adapt to the shifting preferences of the electorate.