Unemployment and anger against the state leader linked? Data says so; An India Tracker analysis

By: Devparna Acharya

According to the Anger Index, 35.4% Indians are angry with Rajasthan CM, while a mighty 30.7% were miffed with the Haryana CM. Bihar, where unemployment stood at 21.1%, at least 32% are angry with Nitish Kumar

The Indian electorate is making it abundantly clear that they will give the boot to the governments not fulfilling the basic needs of their citizens. C-Voter asked Indian citizens who were they most angry with and given a chance to change one of them, who would they pick for an immediate change? The options for the respondents ranged between state government, central government, Prime Minister, Chief Minister, Sitting MP, Sitting MLA or the Local Sarpanch.

While some responses from the survey were predictable, some insights indicated that Indian voters remain most powerful enforcers of change in world’s oldest democracy. The survey results showed interesting correlation between anger against the Chief Minister and the recently-released unemployment data in India. Let’s review this.

As far as the data suggests, Indians are clearly not biased towards a BJP or a non-BJP ruled state when it comes to their anger against their state governments and chief ministers. Indians are most angry with Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot (a Congress leader) and least angry with Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel (another Congress leader). India Tracker delved a little deeper on this point.

Rajasthan numbers aren’t surprising given the latest crisis in the Rajasthan government and the open rebellion between the two powerheads in the state Congress – Pilot and Gehlot. The latter has been referred to as a “reluctant CM”, however, once Pilot’s name was floated as the new CM the crisis in the state unit deepened. This wasn’t the first time that the state leadership was divided over a power struggle. While the state leadership, the CM included, was so busy with infighting, Rajasthan also registered the highest unemployment rate, according to CMIE data.

Rajasthan ranked second on the list of rampant joblessness at 28.8%, according to CMIE data. Haryana took the top slot and stood at 34.5%. According to the Anger Index, 35.4% Indans are angry with Rajasthan CM, while a mighty 30.7% were miffed with the Harayan CM. Bihar, where unemployment stood at 21.1%, at least 32% are angry with Nitish Kumar. Interestingly, Chhattisgarh recently emerged as a state with least unemployment rates among all the states; and one can't overlook the fact that Chhattisgarh CM has emerged top ranked as far as managing the public anger is considered.

Ironically, the trend is not visible in all states. Himachal and Telangana, which ranked poorly on the Anger Index, ranked decently on the rate of joblessness. While a whopping 66.8% are angry with the Telangana state government, and 63% expressed their unhappiness with the Himachal Pradesh government, the unemployment rate in both states stood at 8.3% and 9.2%, respectively.

Alternatively, states that recorded least anger with their state governments and their chief ministers have shown good ratings on the unemployment chart. 

Source: CMIE

CMIE data, juxtaposed with the anger index findings, decisively show what analysts and pundits parrot after every election results – the electorate doesn’t need promises, they want to see the promises being delivered. Labour markets are showing signs of economic distress as India’s labour force fell by 38 lakhs in the month of March, lowest level in the last eight months. In a statement, CMIE said millions left the labour markets, they stopped even looking for employment, possibly too disappointed with their failure to get a job and under the belief that there were no jobs available. And they clearly blame their CMs and state governments for it.