Taking stock of India and China's population policies sixty years on

By: Lakshita Bhagat

This is the story of India and China and where they stand today after 50 years regarding their fertility rates, and assess the impact of policies on total fertility pattern and highlight implications, especially for China given its ageing population

This analysis is part of a series of pieces comparing China and India on India Tracker marking 60 years of the Indo-China War of 1962

The world’s two most populated countries chose diverging population policies to tackle the population boom. While one relied on awareness and soft measures, the other followed a stringent policy. This is the story of India and China and where they stand today after 50 years regarding their fertility rates, and assess the impact of policies on total fertility pattern and highlight implications, especially for China given its ageing population.

Demographic trends are widely analysed as they indicate the direction of population change. While some countries are concerned about an increase in population, others are worried due to a lack of it. Healthy and sustainable population growth is the goal and to maintain it, countries have pursued a variety of policies. Maintaining sustainable growth is crucial from the perspective of resources, the environment, and the economy.

The Twin Challenges and Diverging Policy Pathways

At the time of their inception in 1947 and 1949, India and the People’s Republic of China (PRC or simply China), respectively, were poor countries with low levels of literacy, poor socio-economic indicators, and huge international concerns including cross-border security. The countries' populations started to climb steadily. India and China were now faced with the twin challenges of pushing economic growth and limiting population. Slowing the growth of the population was essentially seen to help economic growth.

Both India and China adopted population and family policies to curb population growth. Concerned by the population rise in the 1960s and 1970s, India and China initiated population policies in the 1970s and 1980s. In 1976/77, India came up with the population policy. Some of the features of the policy were raising the marriage age for girls and boys; raising female literacy; monetary incentives for sterilisation; birth control measures; spreading family planning awareness; population education. The policy was updated in 2000 with a focus on the unmet need for contraception, healthcare infrastructure, setting targets for replacement level fertility rate and stabilisation of population. The population policy laid down by China was not only stringent but punitive as well, such as fines, forced abortion, and denial of state services. The one-child policy was introduced in 1980 under the leadership of Deng. Accordingly, couples were restricted to having one-child only. Concessions were given to rural people and single children. However, after the census depicted the slowest population growth in decades, the policy has been tweaked twice in 2016 and 2021 allowing two and three children respectively

Total Fertility Rate (births per woman), India and China, 1960-2020

Source: World Bank

As can be seen from the chart above, India and China had similar fertility rates in 1960. However, the decline in India’s fertility has been steadier than China's. The total fertility rate for China and India was 1.7 and 2.2 in 2022. India has further reduced its fertility rate to 2, which is below replacement level as per the latest estimates. Unlike India, China which pursued coercive measures now wants to avert the consequences of the demographic shift that it is undergoing. For instance, the strict one-child policy resulted in massive sex-selective abortion given the centuries-old son preference giving rise to millions of ‘missing women’. Further, a skewed sex ratio at birth of more males than females has come to affect the marriage market, males are finding it harder to find a female mate resulting in a male marriage squeeze. In light of low fertility patterns concerns are mounting over an ageing population and shrinking workforce. A sizeable population in future is central to China’s economy and military. But China might find it hard to revive its fertility trends by relaxing reproductive rights because the behaviour and preferences of people have also taken a colossal shift. India has demonstrated how population growth can be controlled with a focus on socioeconomic development eschewing the need for hard measures. As the experts say that ‘development is the best contraception’.

Going forward

The two countries' policy choices demonstrate the wide-ranging impact and consequences they can have not just on population numbers but on people’s preferences and attitudes. While India is projected to become the world’s most populous country in some years overtaking China, it is expected to experience a demographic dividend as well. The task in front of the country is clear— how to reap this dividend of how having the highest number of people in the working-age population.