Sunday, 13 Oct, 2024
By: Anshul Vipat
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Samarkand, Uzbekistan to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. This is the first-in-person head of the states meet, after the last one held in June 2019 in Kyrgyzstan before the COVID pandemic.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Samarkand, Uzbekistan to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. Modi arrived in the historical city on Thursday afternoon and will be meeting the world leaders including Vladimir Putin, Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. He is also likely to meet Chinese president Xi Jinping.
This is the first-in-person head of the states meet, after the last one held in June 2019 in Kyrgyzstan before the COVID pandemic. The last two summits were held in virtual format under the chairmanship of Russia and Tajikistan respectively. This summit is particularly significant considering the fact that Modi will be meeting Chinese President Xi Jingping for the first time since the two armies clashed in the Galwan Valley in 2020.
India and SCO
The presence of the region’s key states makes it a formidable multilateral organisation. SCO provides a vocal platform for New Delhi push the agenda of regional and cross-regional connectivity between Central Asia and South Asia by circumnavigating Pakistan. Islamabad has repeatedly blocked connectivity and energy projects like Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) power transmission line. Through SCO, New Delhi can push for greater cooperation on Chabahar port and other connectivity projects. The changing regional and global security in the wake of Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan has necessitated closer regional cooperation in the areas like connectivity and energy. Apart from connectivity, New Delhi can also use the dialogue to initiate multilateral and regional initiatives on counter-terrorism and deal with the illicit drug trade.
High time India taps on its Look North policy
The relationship between India and the Central Asian countries goes back to the historical Silk Road. The influence can be seen in architecture, music, art and cuisine. Since the past few years, India has been trying to pursue strategic, economic and cultural interests with the Central Asian countries. The relationship. The entry of Iran, one of the important partners of India in SCO is an added advantage. In 2020, India, Iran and Uzbekistan had established a trilateral working group for better convergence on Chabahar port project.
India can be a platform for Central Asian countries to get linked to the global market for production, supplies of raw materials and services. As the accompanying chart shows, India's trade with Central Asian countries has been on a rise. However, India’s current trade with Central Asia is minimal – just about $2 billion which is less than 1 percent of India’s overall trade.
In 2020-21, total trade between India and Kazakhstan $1.3 billion. For the same period, trade with Kyrgyzstan was only $43.37 million, trade with Tajikistan was at $54.51 million and India-Turkmenistan trade was $60.64 million, which was 0.01 percent of India’s total trade. Lastly, trade with Uzbekistan was $295 million, which accounted for 0.04 percent of India’s total trade. In sharp contrast, China's trade with these countries is estimated to be $41.7 billion. Beijing's cumulative investments in Central Asia alone amounted to roughly $55 billion between 2005- 2020.
The complementary aspects of Indian and Central Asian economies mean that the potential for trade is extremely high. India has taken a number of initiatives in the last few years keeping Central Asia in its focus. As India assumes the rotational annual presidency of the SCO at the end of the Samarkand Summit, its time, New Delhi taps on the initiatives and keep working on the ‘Look North Policy'.
