Friday, 17 May, 2024
By: Anshul Vipat
Production of major Kharif crops for 2022-23 was pegged at 149.92 million tonnes (mt) which is much lower than the target. Image source: IANS
The dip in Kharif rice production is significant in view of the requirement of rice for distribution under the National Food Security Act 2013
On Thursday, IndiaTracker did a story analysing this year's rainfall pattern. The analysis revealed that while India as a whole received excess rainfall, large parts of the country faced rain deficiency - particularly, the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Bengal, Punjab and Jharkhand had 8-20 percent rain deficit. According to reports, this has adversely affectedcountry's crop output. In this article, we will analyse how the uneven monsoon will affect the food on your plate.
Not a rosy scenario
According to the advanced estimates released by the Union Agriculture Ministry early October, production of major Kharif crops for 2022-23 was pegged at 149.92 million tonnes (mt) which is much lower than the target of 163.15 mt for the Kharif 2022-23 and the production of 156.04 mt during the last Kharif (2021). In 2021, the total Kharif foodgrain production stood at 150.58 mt.
The kharif rice production estimates are lower than the target of 112 mt set for the current season and 105.21 mt figure of 2020-21. The dip in Kharif rice production is significant in view of the requirement of rice for distribution under the National Food Security Act 2013. The total production of Kharif rice during 2022-23 is estimated at 104.99 million tonnes. It is higher by 4.40 million tonnes than the previous five years' (2016-17 to 2020-21) average Kharif rice production of 100.59 million tonnes.
As the sowing of Kharif (summer) crops comes to an end, as per the agriculture ministry data released on September 30, the overall paddy sowing area in the kharif season is 40.2 million hectares (mh), 4.7 percent less than what it was a year ago. The data showed that the area planted to paddy remained at 402.88 lakh hectares (ha) this Kharif season (July-June 2022-23), as against 423.4 lakh hectares in the year-ago period, 20.16 per cent less as compared to the previous year.
Less coverage in paddy area was reported from Jharkhand (9.32 lakh hectare), Madhya Pradesh (2.22 lakh hectare), West Bengal (3.65 lakh hectare), Uttar Pradesh (2.48 lakh hectare) and Bihar (1.97 lakh hectare). Paddy coverage remained less even in these states: Assam (0.95 lakh ha), Andhra Pradesh (0.75 lakh ha), Chhattisgarh (0.63 lakh ha), Tripura (0.27 lakh ha), Meghalaya (0.21 lakh ha), Odisha (0.21 lakh ha), Nagaland (0.21 lakh ha), Punjab (0.12 lakh ha), Goa (0.03 lakh ha), Mizoram (0.03 lakh ha), Sikkim (0.02 lakh ha) and Kerala (0.02 lakh ha). Paddy coverage has been affected due to deficit rainfall.
Not just paddy, pulse production has also taken a hit. For instance, the total area sown for pulses was 132.8 lakh hectares, 6 percent less than last year, while oilseeds reported a 2 percent decline. Only cotton and sugarcane reported an increase in sowing. Sugarcane had a 0.5 percent increase, while the total area sown for cotton was 127.4 lakh hectares as against 118.6 lakh hectares in 2021-22.
Kharif is the main cropping season in India and it pivots on monsoon rains. About 60 percent of India’s gross cropped area has assured irrigation. This implies that about 48 percent area depends on monsoon rains for irrigation. Even in irrigated areas, rains are needed to reduce dependence on electricity and diesel. So, if there is serious deficiency in rainfall, the crop production and its costs of cultivation are bound to be adversely impacted.
Drop in stocks
The low productivity of kharif crops has also affected the procurement of foodgrains. According to data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI), wheat and rice stocks in public godowns totalled 511.4 lakh tonnes (lt) as on October 1. This was as against 816 lt a year ago and the lowest for the same date since 2017.
Wheat stocks that stood at 227.5 lt as of October 1, were not only at a six-year low, but also just over the minimum buffer (three-month operational stock requirement plus strategic reserve to meet procurement shortfalls) of 205.2 lt for this date. However, rice stocks (inclusive of grain derived from un-milled paddy) were nearly 2.8 times the necessary levels.
India consumed 109.5 million tonnes of rice in the year 2021-2022, according to a report by the federal agency United States Department of Agriculture in June 2022. This means there may be a shortage of around 4.5 million tonnes of rice this year.
To add to this, the government has recently extended the free ration scheme for poor households till December. The scheme that guarantees 5 kg of rice or wheat and 1 kg of pulses to over 80 lakh household will impose tremendous strain on grain stocks.
However, the government has said that there is no need to raise alarm. In recent statement, the government said that the ban on exports of broken rice has not only help keep the buffer stock in check, but also reduce the prices.
