Less rainfall in June slows the planting of key kharif crops

Scanty rainfall had forced farmers to refrain from taking up sowing

After a dull June, monsoon in India has picked up pace over the past week and has finally covered the entire country as of 2 July. India had received 8 percent lower rainfall than average in June because of scanty monsoon in central parts of the country.

According to Indian Metrological Department’s (IMD)'s data, India received 48.04 mm rainfall from June 1 to June 15, the 37th lowest since 1900. Twenty-four out of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions recorded 90 percent or less of their normal precipitation for June. However, by the end of the month, monsoon gathered momentum, and covered the entire country. The southwest monsoon has further advanced into the remaining parts of the North Arabian Sea, Gujarat and Rajasthan. Thus, the Southwest Monsoon covered the entire country on 2 July 2022, against the normal date of 8 July (six days before the normal date of covering the entire India).

Source: Indian Metrological Department

Overall, India looks set to experience ‘normal’ rainfall this month. This means the country’s collective precipitation will be within 94 to 106% of the long-period average (LPA) for July, which is about 280.4 mm. IMD has forecast a “normal” monsoon this year at 99% of long period average with margin error of +/-5%. The new LPA for the monsoon season (June to September) is the average for the period between 1971 and 2020 which is 868.6mm.

 
District-wise seasonal rainfall in India so far since 1 June, 2022. Source: Indian Metrological Department

Bountiful monsoon in July would ease concerns about the ongoing sowing operations of kharif crops (paddy, pulses and coarse grains) that could not pick up well in June. Scanty rainfall had forced farmers to refrain from taking up sowing. The main worry is over kharif pulses, particularly moong (green gram) and urad (black gram), whose window seems to be closing.

According to Agriculture Ministry data, kharif crops have been sown in 14.05 million hectares (MH), around 24 percent less than corresponding period last year, while rice witnessed a 27 percent drop as of July 1. Except for Uttar Pradesh, all other major paddy-growing States have reported lower acreage. Coarse cereals and oilseeds saw a 16 percent and 18 percent respectively. Only sugarcane acreage has not changed greatly, while pulses and fibers reported an improvement.

Monsoon which delivers over 70 percent of the country's rainfall is considered the lifeline of India's agriculture-dependent economy. The monsoon impacts inflation, jobs, and industrial demand. Good farm output keeps a lid on food inflation. The farm sector employs more than half of the country's population and accounts for nearly 15 per cent of India's $2.7 trillion economy, Asia's third-biggest.