Tuesday, 14 Jan, 2025
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India, now the world’s most populous nation, faces a critical challenge as its fertility rate slows. Experts warn that the country may age before it achieves sustained economic prosperity, emphasizing the need for proactive policies to harness its demographic potential.
Of late, experts have shared diverse perspectives on the country’s population trends. While concerns about the growing population have been raised by industry leaders, others have pointed to the declining fertility rate as a major demographic shift, reflecting wide-ranging facets of the population narrative that will shape India’s trajectory through the century.
Population Growth Trends
The Census data shows that population growth slowed to 17.70 per cent during 2001-2011, compared to 21.54 per cent in the previous decade. This marked the lowest population growth in six decades, with a previous low of 13.31 per cent in 1951.
Fertility Rate Decline
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) dropped to 2.2 during 2001-2011 from 2.5 in 1991-2001, signalling a shift toward smaller family sizes. This decline in TFR demonstrates a broader demographic change, with couples opting for fewer children on average.
More importantly, these trends emphasise the evolving demographic landscape, with implications for resource management, economic growth, and social structures in the country.
Notably, India’s demographic landscape is experiencing a huge change, as indicated by fertility and population growth trends:
Fertility Rate Insights
The TFR was slightly above the replacement level of 2.1 during 2001-2011, which is the rate at which a population stabilises over time.
According to National Family Health Surveys (NFHS), the TFR remained at 2.2 in 2015-16, the same as in 2011. It fell to 2 during 2019-21, dropping below the replacement level, indicating that India’s population will eventually stabilise and decline.
Population Projections
Despite the below-replacement fertility rate, projections by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) says that India’s population will not start declining before 2062.
From 2025 onwards, the annual population growth rate is expected to fall below 1 per cent. These shifts signal a turning point in India’s demographic trajectory, with long-term implications for economic planning, labour markets, and resource allocation.
India's population growth dynamics, however, are at a critical juncture, with contrasting concerns about population stabilisation and the potential loss of its demographic dividend.
Population Growth Trends
UN DESA projects India's population growth rate to decline to 0.9 per cent in 2025, translating to an addition of 1.31 crore people that year. This figure is significantly lower than the 1.82 crore people added annually on average during the 2001-2011 decade.
Despite the slowdown, this yearly increase would still amount to about half of Australia’s population (2.68 crore as of December 2024, per Worldometer).
Since India’s TFR dropped below the replacement level of 2.1 during 2019-21, concerns have emerged about an aging population, which could diminish the current demographic advantage.
In 2024, 68.7 per cent of India’s population was aged between 15 and 64, according to UN DESA, representing a significant demographic dividend.
However, this potential has been underutilised due to a lack of skills and opportunities.
The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for 2023-24 (July-June) showed that only about 20 per cent of employed individuals held regular wage or salaried jobs, a trend consistent over recent years.
Implications
While the population growth slowdown raises concerns about the future labour force and aging, India's current focus must be on maximising its demographic dividend. This requires targeted investments in education, skills training, and employment opportunities, ensuring that the working-age population becomes a productive force before the window of demographic advantage closes.
India’s aging population is increasingly shaped by rising life expectancy and a falling TFR, signalling a demographic shift with far-reaching implications.
Key Trends
In 2024, life expectancy reached 71 years for males and 74 years for females, a notable rise from 64.6 years (males) and 67.7 years (females) in 2011.
The share of individuals over 60 years in India's population was 10.1% in 2021, projected to increase to 15 per cent by 2035.
Way Forward
India must balance its focus between leveraging the demographic dividend and preparing for an aging population. Investments in healthcare, pension systems, and long-term care infrastructure will be critical to addressing the needs of a larger elderly demographic without undermining economic growth.
